Trainer Knowledge: Top 10 Trainers who beat the system

What is it about the same trainers who beat the handicapper year in year out? Do they have a canny knack of handicapping their horses to perfection year upon year, or does the handicapper give them a chance at certain stables as opposed to others?

I mean if you had a Nick Williams horse win a maiden on debut by three lengths, and a Sir Michael Stoute horse win the same race by the same distance – would they get handicapped the same? Or would the Sir Michael Stoute horse be handicapped on his trainers’ reputation and thus run the risk of being badly handicapped?

Some trainers consistently beat the handicapper each year despite the handicapper always trying new ways to get a handle on the horse. Sir Mark Prescott is a prime example of this and in many ways the master of beating the British Handicapping System, something which he has done successfully for decades.

The only problem is now is that once your typical Sir Mark Prescott horse has had it’s three runs over a trip short of it’s best as a two-year-old, when it returns in a Handicap as a three-year-old over a more suitable trip, the cat is usually already out of the bag. The new revolution of the betting exchange or Betfair as I’d prefer to call it – now gives a more realistic interpretation of a horses price, and with one so obviously well handicapped as a Prescott handicapper first time up, a lot of people will be queuing up to hit the ‘back’ button; so you need to start looking elsewhere for better prices on less exposed masters of this handicapping shrewdness.

Therefore the aim of this article is to pinpoint 9 other trainers who beat the Handicapping system on a regular basis and show a solid profit in the process, each trainer will be presented with a list of essential stats which will give you an idea as to how often they beat the system.

10.
David Elsworth
Bets: 855
Wins: 105
Strike Rate: 12.28%
Profit to £10 Stakes: £2,114.60

9.
Tom Tate
Bets: 286
Wins: 38
Strike Rate: 13.29%
Profit to £10 Stakes: £700.96

8.
David Wachman
Bets: 402
Wins: 57
Strike-Rate: 14.18%
Profit to £10 Stakes: £650.01

7.
Chris Wall
Bets: 725
Wins: 110
Strike-Rate: 15.17%
Profit to £10 Stakes: £1,277.90

6.
John Long
Bets: 106
Wins: 17
Strike-Rate: 16.04%
Profit to £10 Stakes: £1,410.08

Jane Chapple-Hyam; former wife of trainer Peter has had plenty of experience in horse racing. Working for sixteen years as Peter Chapple-Hyam’s assistant in both England and Hong Kong and in 2005 took a huge step into the training ranks herself. Now backed up by Jim & Fitri Hay her string only look like improving and she’s a woman who knows what she is doing.

5.
Jane Chapple-Hyam
Bets: 157
Wins: 27
Strike-Rate: 17.2%
Profit to £10 Stakes: £900.66

A chartered accountant and a competent racehorse trainer, Nick Williams may not have the horses as some of the more prominent stables in racing but he certainly knows a handicap snip when he sees one. After all he did get Bulwark to win the Chester Cup, that’s an achievement in it’s self and a cracking year so far in 2008, suggests he’s only going to get better.

4.
Nick Williams
Bets: 259
Wins: 51
Strike-Rate: 19.69%
Profit to £10 Stakes: £1,406.60

One of the latest new wave of talent to start up training, Tom Dascombe has made racing his life for the last 19 years, and stints as a stable lad, jockey, and now trainer – this lad has made rapid progress in his first season or two at the helm, and is a talent worth keeping on the right side of.

3.
Tom Dascombe
Bets: 156
Wins: 32
Strike-Rate: 20.51%
Profit to £10 Stakes: £675.20

Tim Vaughan a relatively new trainer on the racing scene, although being involved with horses all his life. Took out a permit to train horses in 2005, and saddled a winner with his first runner. Investments in his abilities over the last couple of years have seen this mans talent come to the fore and looks one to follow for a while yet.

2.
Tim Vaughan
Bets: 84
Wins: 19
Strike-Rate: 22.62%
Profit to £10 Stakes: £442.90

…and finally what list would be complete without the messiah himself, and straight in at number one goes Sir Mark Prescott.

1.
Sir Mark Prescott
Bets: 702
Wins: 214
Strike-Rate: 30.48%
Profit to £10 Stakes: £525.00

So there you have it, 10 trainers worth following in Handicap Company which are proven money makers. All stats date back to 2003, and thus separate the men from the boys, and in Jane Chapple-Hyam’s case, the women from the girls.

The Lower Classes

Something which has always lurked in the back of my mind was looking at the unexpected angles within Horse Racing and hopefully turning them into hard cash – so after being bored for a few hours on the PC I decided to do some digging around and get the ball rolling on what I’m hoping will be some interesting and money-making stats.

I’ve started off by setting my parameters to races with prize money of £4,000 and below, this will locate races with the class bracket towards the bottom end of the spectrum. The un-genuine and the not very good can often be found down in these levels but some trainers do specifically well with these type of animals; a list of the better performing can be located in the table below.

So we have now established a list of 17 different trainers who all show a profit to level stakes in races with prize money of £4,000 or less. Taking the data from the table above it would appear that Michael Jarvis comes out top of the list in this type of grade and although he hasn’t’ showed as much profit as William Knight amongst others he’s most consistent.

Now it’s time to analyze a select few whom I’ve picked out to try and narrow down the search to specific tracks. For this I’ve used the same criteria above, but have managed to add in the course as well. I’ve started this search with Michael Jarvis as he sits top of the pile above I thought it was only fair, and it would appear he does best at Nottingham and Lingfield in these types of races.

Showing a solid strike-rate of 34% at Nottingham a track where Michael Jarvis does well on the whole is decent, although by the look of things there aren’t many decent prices lying around with just a profit of £60.06 to £10 level stakes. Lingfield however is a different kettle of fish, a strike-rate of nearly 30% but his profit is three times as much and weighs in on £380.91 to £10 units.

I then decided to give William Haggas a try after such an improved season for his yard this year and he continues to fire the winners in. He appears to do better by far in this grade at Southwell and shows a near 40% strike rate in these moderate affairs. If you’d backed all his horses in races of our criteria at Southwell to £10 you’d of made a tasty £180.35 profit. He’s also doing well at both Kempton and Yarmouth and can be backed at all three tracks to the tune of a healthy profit.

Tom Dascombe is next on the list and a trainer who has made rapid headway through the training ranks after firing in Classic Blade in the July Stakes at Newmarket, along with Firth Of Fifth in the Superlative Stakes. He’s done remarkably well since taking up his license and looks sure to progress into bigger and better things in the future. That doesn’t mean however he won’t farm these smaller races. You can already see he’s a potent force around Wolverhampton and Lingfield in races worth £4,000 or less, and shows a solid profit on each track. His horses should be followed at these two tracks as they won’t be far away judging by the above, especially at Wolverhampton.

Next I thought I’d include a local trainer in this piece and who better than Nick Williams who has really impressed this year, landing the Chester Cup with the evergreen Bulwark is an achievement worthy of note. Showing a healthy profit at all three jumping tracks above, a solid strike-rate of 35% at Worcester suggests his horses wont be far from winning went campaigned here in the lower grades.

Finally there is William Knight who has been doing well with his handicappers this year, and his flag bearer King Of Dixie has made the step up to pattern class, however Knight is doing considerably well in the lower grades at Lingfield, so much so it’s worthy of mention. A strike rate of just 11% in our criteria of races but when he runs his horses in this type of race round Lingfield his strike-rate almost doubles and posts a lethal profit of £1,315.00 to £10 stakes in the process. His horses in this grade are worth keeping in your pocket as they can make you some solid cash.

Okay now that’s your lot – I’ve spent the past hour or so putting together these stats and I think we can all see from the above stats that it is possible to make some cash in the lower grades, just keep in mind the table of trainers above when encountering a race worth £4,000 or less in prize money – that should put you onto plenty of winning bets.

Take note of William Knight with his runners at Lingfield, Tom Dascombe at Wolverhampton and William Haggas at Southwell. Although backing these trainers’ horses blind in the grade of race should ensure you keep the wolf from the door.

Take it easy,
The Duke