Royal Ascot - St James’s Palace Stakes

An interesting renewal of the St James’ Palace Stakes in which Aidan O’Brien has a terrific record in of recent years, he saddles Henrythenavigator who puts his unbeaten record as a three-year-old on the line. A winner of both English 2000 Guineas and Irish 2000 Guineas, and no New Approach to take him on, can anything beat Aidan’s charge?

An interesting fact to note is that horses that bypass classics to contest this race don’t have a very good record, the latest horse to do this and win was Dr Fong (’98).

Last year’s winner was trained by Aidan O’Brien and went with Excellent Art who posed a nice form boost for the French Guineas; however the English and Irish are the races to focus on, as nine of the last fourteen winners have come from these races. This time round he saddles Henrythenavigator and Minneapolis, however stats suggest Henrythenavigator is the horse to focus on, along with Stubbs Art who both contested the English & Irish Classics, and horses which do so have a good record in this race, having won eight of the last fourteen renewals.

Falco comes from France and aims to be the first French trained winner since Sendawar in 1999, however the form of his French Guineas win looks highly questionable despite a decent run in the Derby from Rio De La Plata, and the time of the race wasn’t overly strong on the stopwatch either, I can see him flopping here.

Henrythenavigator is by far the best animal on form in the race, and with no New Approach to battle with this time has made his task seem a whole lot easier. He’s a classy horse with a sprinters turn of foot, however you can’t get rich backing him at 8/13 (Coral). Meanwhile he looks the most likely winner of the race, and I’ll concede I fancy him to do so; he’s not my idea of value.

Alexandros ran a solid race behind Blythe Knight at Epsom in the Diomed but needs to improve on that effort. The form on the clock he’s shown this year suggests he’s only a group three horse and should struggle to get involved in this class of race.

Cat Junior is well regarded at Brian Meehan’s but isn’t in the same league as Fast Company was, he made a poor return in May and will struggle to get involved here.

Minneapolis is another who’s likely to struggle here and looks like being used as a pacemaker for Henrythenavigator. Races like these can often cut up to be tactical affairs and Aidan O’Brien is doing everything within his power to ensure his horse gets a decent pace to shoot at.

Rio De La Plata was in the process of running well in the Derby until being barged out the way by New Approach 2f out, he probably wouldn’t have done much better than he did that day but ran a respectable race in the process. He looks interesting in something like the Eclipse if taking that route. However his previous run behind Falco in the French Guineas he appears held, but back on home soil he can reverse form.

Stubbs Art has been aimed high by David Elsworth and has picked up a third-placing in both the English and Irish Guineas, well held by Henrythenavigator on both occasions however. He’s currently 22/1 (Totesport) and that looks a big price as he’s an honest horse who’ll run his race, however he isn’t quite good enough to win at this level.

Raven’s Pass has had some issues settling in his races and many people have questioned his ability to last this mile trip. I’ve watched some re-runs of his win round here over 7F and he definitely wasn’t stopping although it wasn’t a noteworthy time. A fourth from a fair way back in the Guineas puts him in with a chance on this track, and I feel he’ll be better round a bend than on the straight mile at Newmarket, on form he’s not far behind Henrythenavigator but is a much better price at 9/1 (PaddyPower).

Finally Twice Over is a horse which holds every chance of going close here, although the stat mentioned above would suggest passing him over in favour of something else (Although Henry Cecil achieved this feat with Dr Fong in 98). A winner of the Craven, connections decided to go for the Derby instead of the Guineas (A mistake in my view) and he ran well in the Dante with reports afterwards suggesting he wasn’t quite right. Dropped back to a mile here, he’s a dangerous sort and is a massive 9/1 (VCBet), he too like Raven’s Pass is a big danger to the favourite.

Verdict:
In what looks plain sailing for the favourite, this is the type of race to look for an each-way alternative, and that place can be filled by RAVENS PASS who can be regarded somewhat unlucky on his Guineas run, and the time posted in the Craven alongside Twice Over would put him there with a big chance. A 9/1 chance with PaddyPower, he looks a cracking each-way.

3pts each-way @ 9/1 with PaddyPower

Written by Jamie Taylor