Royal Ascot - Ascot Gold Cup

This year’s renewal of the Ascot Gold Cup see’s Yeats try and make it three in a row in this marathon event. He’s bidding to make history and join the elite but stats tell us that if the seven-year-old son of Sadler’s Wells is going to do this, he’ll need to defy 68 years of history which suggests that horses over the age of six simply cannot win.

Yeats a lightly raced son of Sadler’s Wells was once favourite for the Epsom Derby, only to be sidelined through injury. He made his return when winning the Coronation Cup, before landing the Ascot Gold Cup twice, and an unsuccessful tilt at the Melbourne Cup. His return this year came in the Vintage Crop Stakes at Navan, and he looked as good as ever shrugging off the challenge of smart performer Red Moloney. He has an excellent turn of foot which is crucial in these staying races and he settles so well which enables him to see out these marathon distances races, if there’s going to be any horse that’ll do the three-timer in this race in the near future, then Yeats has to be strongly fancied to achieve this feat.

Finalmente is improving all the time, and ran a stormer when fourth behind Yeats in this race last year. Having over 20lbs to find on official figures, he plugged on dourly to hold onto fourth place beaten just over eight lengths. A winner of the Henry II Stakes, a Group 2 over two miles at Sandown on his latest start, he can be counted somewhat lucky for that victory. A sedate early pace saw Frankie Dettori seize the initiative to set out and make all judging the fractions to perfection. Balkan Knight and Royal And Regal were cutting down Simon Callaghan’s gelding but the line came just in time, whether he’ll be able to continue the upward rise in form is debateable against such quality opposition.

Balkan Knight a likeable gelding trained by David Elsworth has only scored at Listed level thus far, so his latest effort behind Finalmente provides encouragement that he still retains ability at the age of eight. It’s his first try at the Ascot Gold Cup but he wasn’t disgraced over this distance at Longchamp last autumn when finishing a length and a half behind Yeats in fourth place in the Prix Du Cadran. He to looks to break the stat barrier of horses no older than six landing this race for quite a while but Drum Taps proved it can be done when winning this race aged seven, many moons ago.

Godolphin are a force to be reckoned with in this race, having landed this event three times in the last nine years, and they saddle both Regal Flush and Sagara. The latter poses more interest to me of the two, but will need to improve on his debut effort in England after finishing a poor last at Goodwood over what now looks an inadequate twelve furlongs, despite his fast-finishing third in last years Arc. The interesting thing is that Godolphin acquired Papineau from Andre Fabre in 2005, the season in which he won the Ascot Gold Cup for them, they also targeted a twelve-furlong race at Goodwood for his initial prep-run (although Papineau won that, and then won the Henry II Stakes). There are many similarities here, and Sagara really has to be closely monitored. Regal Flush on the other hand doesn’t strike me as a horse capable of staying this marathon trip, having wilted under pressure behind Samuel at York last time, and behind Tranquil Tiger at Newbury previous.

Diamond Quest is an interesting runner for Andrew Balding who’s stable are absolutely flying at present. Unexposed over this sort of trip, he’s 1-1 over two-miles and has won races over middle distances also. A winner of races from a mile to two miles he clearly has plenty of race and a wicked turn of foot to boot, another who’s looking to break the “older than six” bracket but he’s a big price and could sneak into a place.

Geordieland is a horse we know all to well about, especially in this exact race last year when seemingly cantering and ready to take aim at Yeats, however when asked for his effort the Jamie Osborne trained gelding decided to down-tools. A master class ride from Shane Kelly (and you cant say that too often) in the Yorkshire Cup last time saw him get his head in-front under the kid-glove treatment, he didn’t look to enthusiastic to go about his job, and although he’s got the form in the bag and an excellent cruising speed he’ll most likely be found wanting again when asked to go about his business.

Septimus really impressed when stepped up in trip and comprehensively put Geordieland to the sword the last time these pair met in the Doncaster Cup over eighteen furlongs last September. Rumours surrounding this ones participation are putting me off, and there’s the obvious worry he may be better than Yeats thus knocking the favoured ones chances of landing the historic treble. Plenty of market support for the son of Sadler’s Wells today suggests Septimus is going to take his chance, and if he does he’s going to be a major player.

Allegretto is a lovely mare, and an idle one to boot (like most women, ha!) however she had her limits exposed in this last year and it’s more than likely going to happen again. A below-par run behind Finalmente dampens any faith for her backers and she can be avoided in a stronger renewal of the race.

Le Miracle posted a solid effort when third here last year, and looked to have second place in the bag until Geordieland took his measure, a winner of the Prix Du Cadran beating Yeats and Balkan Knight last Autumn, he’s held by Coastal Path who’s blown him away on two recent starts. A nice sort but will probably struggle to do anything drastic here, could sneak third or fourth.

Honolulu is looking less straight-forward by the run, and kept on into a labouring fifth behind Geordieland in the Yorkshire Cup, he’s going to struggle to get involved against much classier rivals here, and will probably bid to set the pace for his stable companions.

Finally we have Coastal Path, a massive long-striding half-brother to the classy Reefscape, who himself came a gallant second to Yeats in 2006. This Andre Fabre trained four-year-old just oozes class and possesses a lethal turn of foot. Still unbeaten after six races and was toying with his rivals en-route to an easy and dominant success at Longchamp in Group 2 company last time, this colt looks a massive threat to Yeats claim to win that third Gold Cup, I firmly believe Coastal Path will win this race, and market support today suggests connections do aswell.

Race Trends:

• The last 8 winners had previously won a Group 1 or Group 2 race
• 8 of the last 14 winners ran in the Henry II Stakes
• 5 of the last 13 winners ran in the Yorkshire Cup
• Just one winner older than six in the last 68 years
• 12 of the last 15 winners had won over a minimum of two miles
• 10 of the last 13 winners had won earlier in the season

Verdict
In what looks a trappy renewal of the Ascot Gold Cup; it looks like COASTAL PATH will be carrying my win money. He’s looked every inch a superstar in each of his victory to date and several of his formlines suggests he’s more than capable of putting this field to the sword. An each-way alternative looks to be Sagara who’s taken an interesting route through into this race and is a solid price.

2pts win – Coastal Path @ 3/1 with PaddyPower
0.5pt EW – Sagara @ 16/1 with William Hill

Written by Jamie Taylor