Royal Ascot - King Stand Stakes
A solid renewal of the King Stand Stakes this year, now that it’s been upgraded back up to a Group 1 event. Fleeting Spirit bidding to follow up here after breaking the course record en-route to success in the Temple Stakes at Haydock last time is going to be well punted, but is there a chance of her bouncing?
Abraham Lincoln – A solid run behind Astronomer Royal last time in the Greenlands Stakes at the Curragh, and he was bang there a furlong out only to be cut down by his stable-mate. He’s a likeable sort but has been campaigned over six furlongs throughout his career, so the drop back to this fast five is of interest, however he doesn’t look good enough to win this Group 1.
Benbaun – A horse I hold close to my heart after finding his talent as a handicapper when landing the odds for me twice at fancy prices. He’s progressed admirably in the last couple of seasons, culminating in winning the Prix L’Abbaye at Longchamp last autumn. A short-head second to Takeover Target here in 2006 he looks the type of horse who does better in smaller fields when able to dictate things. I’d love to see the old boy mix it with the big guns here, but on this course I think he’s inclined to struggle despite his second place in 2006.
Dandy Man – After looking unlucky when chartering the widest course when fourth to Takeover Target back in 2006, he once again got a bad run of things last year when finishing like a train to come home second to speed-ball Miss Andretti. He was always disadvantaged by his draw from box 1, and had to race on the slower part of the track before finishing with real fizz to erode into Miss Andretti’s lead – however she’d already gone in-front. Has to improve on his poor showing at Haydock last time to figure here, but he’s a big price at around 12/1 (Betfred) and there’s a chance he could return to form with a better stall this year.
Hoh Mike – Nice sprinting sort of Michael Bell’s and a winner of the Group 3 Champagne Sprint last year, he holds an impressive Ascot record (2,2,1). A solid effort behind Assertive upon return to the track in the Duke Of York although a below-par effort at Windsor last time casts doubts in the mind over this ones will to win. Although he has the form in the book here to run a big race, partnered by Jamie Spencer who will adopt the usual “Hold up” tactics – I don’t think he has the ability to beat a few of these, and a fifth or sixth place looks more likely.
Magnus – A solid run here back last year behind Miss Andretti when filling third spot. A below-par effort in the Nunthorpe later suggests that wasn’t his true running. He seems to have an abundance of speed but was held in his latest run by Takeover Target. His wins to runs ratio doesn’t inspire confidence and looks a tricky sort to produce at the right moment. He’ll probably be thereabouts, maybe third or fourth but I cant fancy him to beat a couple of the more prominent sorts.
Matsunosuke – A horse I’m a big fan of and predicted his rise to Group races last year when he went round mopping up the handicaps. A couple of “dodgy” rides on this horse last time are of interest as the horse wasn’t over exerted in his races and finished full of running, schooling for this big race? A solid run behind Captain Gerrard at Newmarket in the Palace House gives him a squeak at big odds, and should get a tow through enabling him to cut through beaten rivals late on, he’s probably not going to be good enough but is a big price and worth chancing a small wager on at 100/1 (BlueSQ)
Moorhouse Lad – Improved rapidly last year progressing from Handicap Company into Group 3 winning Sprinter. He’ll have pace to burn in this fast five, but will more than likely set this up for something sitting just off him, he’ll go well up until the furlong pole, and fade.
Reverence – A top quality sprinter back in 2006, but struggled to find form last year when returning from an injury. He’s taken plenty of time to get right but signs of a revival have been on the cards this year although on this ground tomorrow he’s likely to struggle.
Takeover Target – An admirable globe-trotting sort who’s original cheap purchase has provided his trainer/owner with endless cash pots and fun along the way. A winner here in 2006, he managed fourth behind Miss Andretti here last year with his speed seemingly blunted. He’s knocking on now, but that shouldn’t stop him playing a hand on a course he quite clearly likes. Campaigned slightly differently last year his main aim was the Golden Jubilee and he ran a cracker in that also, this year he’s been given three prep-runs which suggest they’re going for this race once more along with the Golden Jubilee. He has to have a massive chance on previous form, and will be thereabouts.
Enticing – A fast filly with a few opinions of her own, she’s often come up short when fancied in these big sprinting races and looks likely to do so again – and will probably show up well before dropping into around fifth place.
National Colour – Showed some good speed in South Africa and at Nad Al Sheba earlier in the year but came unstuck in the Golden Shaheen. Question marks ring out on this one being good enough for such a prestigious prize and is worth taking a chance on leaving it.
Captain Gerrard – A note in the racing post today suggests trainer Bryan Smart will only risk his charge if the ground is suitable. I can’t see it being suitable for him and thus he probably wont run. He’s worth taking a chance with if running based on his explosive effort in the Palace House at Newmarket earlier in the year. Wasn’t seen at his best behind Equiano at Chantilly last time up and would be a major player here if taking his chance (16/1 Bet365)
Equiano – An unexposed colt who showed explosive speed to give classy Marchand D’Or a race last time looks to have a major chance in this Group 1. He hasn’t had much racing this year so there’s a chance he’s ready to peak around now. Interesting the trainer comes over here for this big prize instead of mopping up some weaker races in his native France. Olivier Peslier is a top-class jockey who takes the ride, and this horse is dangerously unexposed at 16/1 (Paddy Power).
Kingsgate Native – Shocked many an informed judge with his massive debut display at this meeting last year in the Windsor Castle Stakes. He made no mistake by running the smart more-experienced Fleeting Spirit to a close race in the Flying Childers next time out, before running the older horses ragged in the Nunthorpe stakes and scoring in style. He then went for the Prix L’Abbeye where things didn’t go right for him but still ran a massive race in defeat finishing second to Benbaun. He looks a major player this year and his price of 8/1 is huge.
Fleeting Spirit – Wowed us all with a scintillating display in the Temple Stakes on her seasonal re-appearance and there’s no doubt this filly is a top-class sprinting animal. However there has to be call for the chances she’ll bounce based on such a fast run last time. An exercept from Nick Mordin’s column is an interesting read “I found that since Raceform adjusted their speed ratings formula in 2000 there have been 19 three year old fillies which earned ratings of 110 or more over five furlongs off lay-offs of 90 days or more before June in Britain. All nineteen lost next time out. In the four previous seasons I found five three year old fillies which had earned speed ratings of 50 or more (the rough equivalent on Raceform’s old rating scale) in the same circumstances. Again all five lost next time out. In other words the 24 fastest five furlong performances by three year old fillies on their seasonal debuts over the last dozen years have all been followed by defeat next time out.” Based on this I think her current price of 9/4 is plenty short enough and I’ll be willing to look elsewhere for some value.
Verdict:
It should be worth giving another chance to a solid sprinter in KINGSGATE NATIVE who won a Nunthorpe as a two-year-old against quality older sprinters, and is sure to have improved between two and three. The record of three-year-olds first time up in this race bode well for Kingsgate Native, as both Pivotal (96) and Dominica (02) both won this race first time up as a three-year-old and he bids to do the same. Matsunosuke is worth a minor covering each-way stake at large prices as he has the ability to run a race here.
2pts each-way @ 8/1 with Bet365, PaddyPower, BlueSQ, VCBet
0.25pts each-way @ 100/1 with Betfred and BlueSQ
Written by Jamie Taylor
