Royal Ascot - Ascot Gold Cup

This year’s renewal of the Ascot Gold Cup see’s Yeats try and make it three in a row in this marathon event. He’s bidding to make history and join the elite but stats tell us that if the seven-year-old son of Sadler’s Wells is going to do this, he’ll need to defy 68 years of history which suggests that horses over the age of six simply cannot win.

Yeats a lightly raced son of Sadler’s Wells was once favourite for the Epsom Derby, only to be sidelined through injury. He made his return when winning the Coronation Cup, before landing the Ascot Gold Cup twice, and an unsuccessful tilt at the Melbourne Cup. His return this year came in the Vintage Crop Stakes at Navan, and he looked as good as ever shrugging off the challenge of smart performer Red Moloney. He has an excellent turn of foot which is crucial in these staying races and he settles so well which enables him to see out these marathon distances races, if there’s going to be any horse that’ll do the three-timer in this race in the near future, then Yeats has to be strongly fancied to achieve this feat.

Finalmente is improving all the time, and ran a stormer when fourth behind Yeats in this race last year. Having over 20lbs to find on official figures, he plugged on dourly to hold onto fourth place beaten just over eight lengths. A winner of the Henry II Stakes, a Group 2 over two miles at Sandown on his latest start, he can be counted somewhat lucky for that victory. A sedate early pace saw Frankie Dettori seize the initiative to set out and make all judging the fractions to perfection. Balkan Knight and Royal And Regal were cutting down Simon Callaghan’s gelding but the line came just in time, whether he’ll be able to continue the upward rise in form is debateable against such quality opposition.

Balkan Knight a likeable gelding trained by David Elsworth has only scored at Listed level thus far, so his latest effort behind Finalmente provides encouragement that he still retains ability at the age of eight. It’s his first try at the Ascot Gold Cup but he wasn’t disgraced over this distance at Longchamp last autumn when finishing a length and a half behind Yeats in fourth place in the Prix Du Cadran. He to looks to break the stat barrier of horses no older than six landing this race for quite a while but Drum Taps proved it can be done when winning this race aged seven, many moons ago.

Godolphin are a force to be reckoned with in this race, having landed this event three times in the last nine years, and they saddle both Regal Flush and Sagara. The latter poses more interest to me of the two, but will need to improve on his debut effort in England after finishing a poor last at Goodwood over what now looks an inadequate twelve furlongs, despite his fast-finishing third in last years Arc. The interesting thing is that Godolphin acquired Papineau from Andre Fabre in 2005, the season in which he won the Ascot Gold Cup for them, they also targeted a twelve-furlong race at Goodwood for his initial prep-run (although Papineau won that, and then won the Henry II Stakes). There are many similarities here, and Sagara really has to be closely monitored. Regal Flush on the other hand doesn’t strike me as a horse capable of staying this marathon trip, having wilted under pressure behind Samuel at York last time, and behind Tranquil Tiger at Newbury previous.

Diamond Quest is an interesting runner for Andrew Balding who’s stable are absolutely flying at present. Unexposed over this sort of trip, he’s 1-1 over two-miles and has won races over middle distances also. A winner of races from a mile to two miles he clearly has plenty of race and a wicked turn of foot to boot, another who’s looking to break the “older than six” bracket but he’s a big price and could sneak into a place.

Geordieland is a horse we know all to well about, especially in this exact race last year when seemingly cantering and ready to take aim at Yeats, however when asked for his effort the Jamie Osborne trained gelding decided to down-tools. A master class ride from Shane Kelly (and you cant say that too often) in the Yorkshire Cup last time saw him get his head in-front under the kid-glove treatment, he didn’t look to enthusiastic to go about his job, and although he’s got the form in the bag and an excellent cruising speed he’ll most likely be found wanting again when asked to go about his business.

Septimus really impressed when stepped up in trip and comprehensively put Geordieland to the sword the last time these pair met in the Doncaster Cup over eighteen furlongs last September. Rumours surrounding this ones participation are putting me off, and there’s the obvious worry he may be better than Yeats thus knocking the favoured ones chances of landing the historic treble. Plenty of market support for the son of Sadler’s Wells today suggests Septimus is going to take his chance, and if he does he’s going to be a major player.

Allegretto is a lovely mare, and an idle one to boot (like most women, ha!) however she had her limits exposed in this last year and it’s more than likely going to happen again. A below-par run behind Finalmente dampens any faith for her backers and she can be avoided in a stronger renewal of the race.

Le Miracle posted a solid effort when third here last year, and looked to have second place in the bag until Geordieland took his measure, a winner of the Prix Du Cadran beating Yeats and Balkan Knight last Autumn, he’s held by Coastal Path who’s blown him away on two recent starts. A nice sort but will probably struggle to do anything drastic here, could sneak third or fourth.

Honolulu is looking less straight-forward by the run, and kept on into a labouring fifth behind Geordieland in the Yorkshire Cup, he’s going to struggle to get involved against much classier rivals here, and will probably bid to set the pace for his stable companions.

Finally we have Coastal Path, a massive long-striding half-brother to the classy Reefscape, who himself came a gallant second to Yeats in 2006. This Andre Fabre trained four-year-old just oozes class and possesses a lethal turn of foot. Still unbeaten after six races and was toying with his rivals en-route to an easy and dominant success at Longchamp in Group 2 company last time, this colt looks a massive threat to Yeats claim to win that third Gold Cup, I firmly believe Coastal Path will win this race, and market support today suggests connections do aswell.

Race Trends:

• The last 8 winners had previously won a Group 1 or Group 2 race
• 8 of the last 14 winners ran in the Henry II Stakes
• 5 of the last 13 winners ran in the Yorkshire Cup
• Just one winner older than six in the last 68 years
• 12 of the last 15 winners had won over a minimum of two miles
• 10 of the last 13 winners had won earlier in the season

Verdict
In what looks a trappy renewal of the Ascot Gold Cup; it looks like COASTAL PATH will be carrying my win money. He’s looked every inch a superstar in each of his victory to date and several of his formlines suggests he’s more than capable of putting this field to the sword. An each-way alternative looks to be Sagara who’s taken an interesting route through into this race and is a solid price.

2pts win – Coastal Path @ 3/1 with PaddyPower
0.5pt EW – Sagara @ 16/1 with William Hill

Written by Jamie Taylor

Royal Ascot - Queen Anne Stakes

A race where trends provide a useful guide to pinpoint the winner, of this Group 1 for older horses over a mile.

The most notable is that only one filly has managed to place in this race since 1990, that being James Fanshawes’ Soviet Song. Red Evie tried and failed last year, Peeress the year before that, Six Perfections and Nebraska Tornado in 2004, and so on.

This year sees both Finsceal Beo and Darjina try and buck the trend which is holding so strongly against the fillies. The former a dual Guineas winner who nearly made it a triple but for being cruelly denied at Longchamp in the French 1000 Guineas, has been campaigned over further distances since her disappointing effort behind Indian Ink here in soft ground last summer in the Coronation Stakes. She’d already had three really hard races in the space of three weeks before contesting that race, and has held her form well as a four-year-old, most recently running a good second to Duke Of Marmalade, himself a leading fancy for the Prince Of Wales stakes, last time. Darjina on the other hand hasn’t won for four races now, and she looked to struggle last time behind Sageburg as when asked for maximum her trademark rapid turn of foot simply wasn’t there. This could have been because she wasn’t quite wound up enough after flying back from Dubai, or simply because she’s already peaked as a three-year-old? She still remains a classy filly however, and a very dangerous prospect in this race.

Fourteen of the last Sixteen winners of the Queen Anne have been four-year-olds, only Ramonti and Cape Cross have bucked this trend (both trained by Saeed Bin Suroor). Suroor doesn’t field any entrants in this year’s race but would have had Creachadoir at his disposal but for a recent accident on the gallops. The current entrants which fit this trend are, Arabian Gleam, Astronomer Royal, Honoured Guest, Mount Nelson, Sageburg, Tariq, Darjina and finally Finsceal Beo.

Another interesting fact to note is that Saeed Bin Suroor and Sir Michael Stoute have saddled ten winners from the last eleven renewals of the race in which either one, or both have runners. This year Sir Michael has Linngari as his only entrant, however the last time a horse as old as Linngari (six) won the race was Ardoon over thirty years ago.

Three of the last nine winners of this race, contested the Dubai Duty Free in Nad Al Sheba, a Group 1 contest ran over nine furlongs. Qualifiers for this trend are both Darjina and Linngari.

Fourteen of the last 27 winners ran in the Lockinge (9 of the last 11 were beaten at Newbury). These are Tariq (third), Cesare (fourth), Arabian Gleam (fifth), Haradasun (sixth), Al Qasi (eighth) and Astronomer Royal (last).

Another thing to be looking out for are fancied runners, eleven of the last twelve winners were in the first four in the betting, however no winning favourite since 1998. This stat I feel can be somewhat dismissed because by a horse’ four-year-old career their form is usually pretty well established and most of them run to form in such big races, thus ensuring the bookmaker generally has these events priced up correctly.

Haradasun is a horse who’s plenty short enough at the prices despite hailing from such a powerful stable at Ballydoyle, however rumours from down under suggests this son of Fusachi Pegasus suffers with a condition known as Anhydrosis. This condition is the inability to sweat properly, the sweat glands shut down when most needed, and the horse will pant excessively for hours on end as a result, this will also perfect its performance. There are various dietary supplements which claim to assist the condition, and Ballydoyle will know the best methods to treat such a condition if the claims are true.

Cesare on the other hand is a horse I very much like, his record round Ascot is somewhat remarkable, 4 wins from 6 runs – a solid run here behind Ramonti twice last year in Group 1’s also back up his credentials. You can forget his last run in the Lockinge, he was forced to come wide and was mucked around at a vital stage in a race which favoured the stands rail, Ascot is more his cup of tea and he’s been kept fresh for this – only worry is the old stat surrounding six-year-olds and over have not won this race since Ardoon over 30 years ago.

Arabian Gleam is held by Tariq on various pieces of form and there’s nothing to suggest he’s going to improve past the Peter Chapple-Hyam trainer colt, however I’m not convinced he will stay a truly run mile. The Lockinge was a slowly-run tactical affair meaning he was able to settle in-behind runners saving vital reserves of energy ahead of a short late sustained burst of speed, thus resulting in him snatching third. The proximity of the Chapple-Hyam second string and smart sprinter Al Qasi also adds weight to this chain of thought, and Tariq a horse who showed enough speed as a two-year-old will most probably be over bet and thus shorter than he should be on what he’s achieved.

Astronomer Royal is a big price after flashing home to nail Abraham Lincoln in the Greenlands Stakes (Group 3 over 6F). The four-year-old is a winner of the French 2000 Guineas last year, and although it’s looking like a weak renewal he had this years Lockinge winner in-behind him. Was most probably in need of the run when finishing last of the bunch at Newbury in the Lockinge, and showed the benefit for that run when winning last time over a trip shorter than ideal, has shown plenty of zip and went well here in the St James Palace stakes behind Excellent Art at the Royal meeting last year, he’s of interest for the each-way thieves amongst us.

Sageburg an interesting sort who’s said to have improved in absolute abundance from three to four confirmed the initial thoughts when comprehensively putting stable-mate Darjina in her place last time. A winner on a variety of different conditions and fits a trend or two is a dangerous unexposed sort in this contest. He’s worth watching for any market support.

Spirito Del Vento booked his ticket to Royal Ascot with a win in a Group 3 contest at Chantilly last time, and Olivier Peslier his usual pilot prefers Sageburg, although Cristophe Lemaire is no poor replacement. However he should lack the necessary class to get involved at this level, and will be a shock should he come home with top honours.

Linngari an interesting entrant for Sir Michael Stoute has been globetrotting in various destinations since winning a Listed race at Haydock back in 2005, and makes his homecoming in this Group 1 event. A poor show last time in the Dubai Duty Free can be put down to a poor stall position and has been given plenty of time to recuperate from the switch in climates. Like Cesare he has the age-old stat to defy in that no horse aged six and above has won this race in over 30 years, but if there’s going to be one who’ll do it – it has to be either of these two. Another interesting thing to note is that Linngari has a terrific record when fresh; discounting his run in the Lingfield Derby Trial over a trip far of his best, his form after a break reads (1,6,1,1). A winner too on the all-weather also strengthens Linngari’s claims, as it’s been noticed by myself that all-weather form has transferred particularly well to Ascot since it’s been revamped.

The Trends:

• 14 of the last 16 winners were four-year-olds
• 14 of the last 27 winners ran in the Lockinge Stakes (9 of the last 11 Lockinge runners were beaten at Newbury)
• 11 of the last 12 winners started in the first four in the betting but no winning favourite since 1998
• 3 of the last 9 winners contested the Dubai Duty Free at Nad Al Sheba
• Saeed Bin Suroor and Sir Michael Stoute have won 10 of the last 11 renewals in which one or both have had runners
• Only 1 placed filly since 1990

Verdict:
In a tricky renewal of this age-old race, it could pay to side with LINNGARI who has a terrific record when fresh, and you can be sure that Sir Michael Stoute will have his charge primed for the occasion. Ryan Moore who rides the selection very rarely makes mistakes in such races as these, and he really is a pilot to have on your side when having a few quid on.

2pts each-way @ 9/1 with Stan James or BetterBet

Written by Jamie Taylor