I will be kicking off with Presenting Copper (12:55 Chepstow) who is an improving mare with no questions over her temperament, the same of which can not be said for likely danger Herecomesthetruth. The Phillip Hobbs trained daughter of Presenting, has an excellent record at Chepstow winning three from four at the track and on ground conditions to suit, can make a bold bid.

Next up will be Gypsy George (2:05 Chepstow) who will enjoy underfoot conditions on offer and will be staying on stoutly when most have cried enough. The Tim Walford trained gelding is still pretty much unexposed having very few miles on the clocking running just 8 times in his lifetime, and with wins over extended trips at Kelso, Uttoxeter and Ayr he can be expected to be thereabouts in this tricky handicap off a mark of 135.

Pepite De Soleil was undoubtedly impressive when hacking up on British debut, but I’ll take her on with the hotly touted Alan King trained juvenile Walkon (2:40 Chepstow) who chased home the impressive Zaynar at Newbury when last seen. There was plenty to like about that ones attitude having to give weight away to Nicky Henderson’s main Triumph Hurdle hope, and the soft ground will play to this ones strengths.

Moving across to Kempton, and the newcomers will have to be something special to serve it up to both Starluck and Balzaccio, but word is Ramona Chase (1:05 Kempton) has schooled like a dream and with that in mind, also accounting for his solid flat form could well surprise the judge at a good value price.

Petit Robin (3:15 Kempton) NAP; is the next port of call, and the Nicky Henderson trained gelding can continue the upward curve after a blistering success last time in handicap company. That was off a mark of 132, of which arguably was thrown in – but he won with such ruthless efficiency against decent grade handicaps it makes you believe that despite being not best off at these weights, can find the necessary improvement.

On the level now, and Reg Hollinshead can continue his rich vein of form with Tillers Satisfied (12:40 Southwell) under the hands of capable apprentice Andrea Atzeni who has a 66.67% strike-rate for the trainer this season. Following on with that man Atzeni again in the next heat and La Capriosa (1:15 Southwell) ran well in a Nursery last time when second from a high draw and with Alan McCabe starting to hit form and the solid jockey booking would suggest the drop to selling company will work the oracle. The last can go to Transmission (3:30 Southwell) and Bryan Smart who can use the drop in distance from her latest run to her advantage.

An interesting renewal of the St James’ Palace Stakes in which Aidan O’Brien has a terrific record in of recent years, he saddles Henrythenavigator who puts his unbeaten record as a three-year-old on the line. A winner of both English 2000 Guineas and Irish 2000 Guineas, and no New Approach to take him on, can anything beat Aidan’s charge?

An interesting fact to note is that horses that bypass classics to contest this race don’t have a very good record, the latest horse to do this and win was Dr Fong (’98).

Last year’s winner was trained by Aidan O’Brien and went with Excellent Art who posed a nice form boost for the French Guineas; however the English and Irish are the races to focus on, as nine of the last fourteen winners have come from these races. This time round he saddles Henrythenavigator and Minneapolis, however stats suggest Henrythenavigator is the horse to focus on, along with Stubbs Art who both contested the English & Irish Classics, and horses which do so have a good record in this race, having won eight of the last fourteen renewals.

Falco comes from France and aims to be the first French trained winner since Sendawar in 1999, however the form of his French Guineas win looks highly questionable despite a decent run in the Derby from Rio De La Plata, and the time of the race wasn’t overly strong on the stopwatch either, I can see him flopping here.

Henrythenavigator is by far the best animal on form in the race, and with no New Approach to battle with this time has made his task seem a whole lot easier. He’s a classy horse with a sprinters turn of foot, however you can’t get rich backing him at 8/13 (Coral). Meanwhile he looks the most likely winner of the race, and I’ll concede I fancy him to do so; he’s not my idea of value.

Alexandros ran a solid race behind Blythe Knight at Epsom in the Diomed but needs to improve on that effort. The form on the clock he’s shown this year suggests he’s only a group three horse and should struggle to get involved in this class of race.

Cat Junior is well regarded at Brian Meehan’s but isn’t in the same league as Fast Company was, he made a poor return in May and will struggle to get involved here.

Minneapolis is another who’s likely to struggle here and looks like being used as a pacemaker for Henrythenavigator. Races like these can often cut up to be tactical affairs and Aidan O’Brien is doing everything within his power to ensure his horse gets a decent pace to shoot at.

Rio De La Plata was in the process of running well in the Derby until being barged out the way by New Approach 2f out, he probably wouldn’t have done much better than he did that day but ran a respectable race in the process. He looks interesting in something like the Eclipse if taking that route. However his previous run behind Falco in the French Guineas he appears held, but back on home soil he can reverse form.

Stubbs Art has been aimed high by David Elsworth and has picked up a third-placing in both the English and Irish Guineas, well held by Henrythenavigator on both occasions however. He’s currently 22/1 (Totesport) and that looks a big price as he’s an honest horse who’ll run his race, however he isn’t quite good enough to win at this level.

Raven’s Pass has had some issues settling in his races and many people have questioned his ability to last this mile trip. I’ve watched some re-runs of his win round here over 7F and he definitely wasn’t stopping although it wasn’t a noteworthy time. A fourth from a fair way back in the Guineas puts him in with a chance on this track, and I feel he’ll be better round a bend than on the straight mile at Newmarket, on form he’s not far behind Henrythenavigator but is a much better price at 9/1 (PaddyPower).

Finally Twice Over is a horse which holds every chance of going close here, although the stat mentioned above would suggest passing him over in favour of something else (Although Henry Cecil achieved this feat with Dr Fong in 98). A winner of the Craven, connections decided to go for the Derby instead of the Guineas (A mistake in my view) and he ran well in the Dante with reports afterwards suggesting he wasn’t quite right. Dropped back to a mile here, he’s a dangerous sort and is a massive 9/1 (VCBet), he too like Raven’s Pass is a big danger to the favourite.

Verdict:
In what looks plain sailing for the favourite, this is the type of race to look for an each-way alternative, and that place can be filled by RAVENS PASS who can be regarded somewhat unlucky on his Guineas run, and the time posted in the Craven alongside Twice Over would put him there with a big chance. A 9/1 chance with PaddyPower, he looks a cracking each-way.

3pts each-way @ 9/1 with PaddyPower

Written by Jamie Taylor

A solid renewal of the King Stand Stakes this year, now that it’s been upgraded back up to a Group 1 event. Fleeting Spirit bidding to follow up here after breaking the course record en-route to success in the Temple Stakes at Haydock last time is going to be well punted, but is there a chance of her bouncing?

Abraham Lincoln – A solid run behind Astronomer Royal last time in the Greenlands Stakes at the Curragh, and he was bang there a furlong out only to be cut down by his stable-mate. He’s a likeable sort but has been campaigned over six furlongs throughout his career, so the drop back to this fast five is of interest, however he doesn’t look good enough to win this Group 1.

Benbaun – A horse I hold close to my heart after finding his talent as a handicapper when landing the odds for me twice at fancy prices. He’s progressed admirably in the last couple of seasons, culminating in winning the Prix L’Abbaye at Longchamp last autumn. A short-head second to Takeover Target here in 2006 he looks the type of horse who does better in smaller fields when able to dictate things. I’d love to see the old boy mix it with the big guns here, but on this course I think he’s inclined to struggle despite his second place in 2006.

Dandy Man – After looking unlucky when chartering the widest course when fourth to Takeover Target back in 2006, he once again got a bad run of things last year when finishing like a train to come home second to speed-ball Miss Andretti. He was always disadvantaged by his draw from box 1, and had to race on the slower part of the track before finishing with real fizz to erode into Miss Andretti’s lead – however she’d already gone in-front. Has to improve on his poor showing at Haydock last time to figure here, but he’s a big price at around 12/1 (Betfred) and there’s a chance he could return to form with a better stall this year.

Hoh Mike – Nice sprinting sort of Michael Bell’s and a winner of the Group 3 Champagne Sprint last year, he holds an impressive Ascot record (2,2,1). A solid effort behind Assertive upon return to the track in the Duke Of York although a below-par effort at Windsor last time casts doubts in the mind over this ones will to win. Although he has the form in the book here to run a big race, partnered by Jamie Spencer who will adopt the usual “Hold up” tactics – I don’t think he has the ability to beat a few of these, and a fifth or sixth place looks more likely.

Magnus – A solid run here back last year behind Miss Andretti when filling third spot. A below-par effort in the Nunthorpe later suggests that wasn’t his true running. He seems to have an abundance of speed but was held in his latest run by Takeover Target. His wins to runs ratio doesn’t inspire confidence and looks a tricky sort to produce at the right moment. He’ll probably be thereabouts, maybe third or fourth but I cant fancy him to beat a couple of the more prominent sorts.

Matsunosuke – A horse I’m a big fan of and predicted his rise to Group races last year when he went round mopping up the handicaps. A couple of “dodgy” rides on this horse last time are of interest as the horse wasn’t over exerted in his races and finished full of running, schooling for this big race? A solid run behind Captain Gerrard at Newmarket in the Palace House gives him a squeak at big odds, and should get a tow through enabling him to cut through beaten rivals late on, he’s probably not going to be good enough but is a big price and worth chancing a small wager on at 100/1 (BlueSQ)

Moorhouse Lad – Improved rapidly last year progressing from Handicap Company into Group 3 winning Sprinter. He’ll have pace to burn in this fast five, but will more than likely set this up for something sitting just off him, he’ll go well up until the furlong pole, and fade.

Reverence – A top quality sprinter back in 2006, but struggled to find form last year when returning from an injury. He’s taken plenty of time to get right but signs of a revival have been on the cards this year although on this ground tomorrow he’s likely to struggle.

Takeover Target – An admirable globe-trotting sort who’s original cheap purchase has provided his trainer/owner with endless cash pots and fun along the way. A winner here in 2006, he managed fourth behind Miss Andretti here last year with his speed seemingly blunted. He’s knocking on now, but that shouldn’t stop him playing a hand on a course he quite clearly likes. Campaigned slightly differently last year his main aim was the Golden Jubilee and he ran a cracker in that also, this year he’s been given three prep-runs which suggest they’re going for this race once more along with the Golden Jubilee. He has to have a massive chance on previous form, and will be thereabouts.

Enticing – A fast filly with a few opinions of her own, she’s often come up short when fancied in these big sprinting races and looks likely to do so again – and will probably show up well before dropping into around fifth place.

National Colour – Showed some good speed in South Africa and at Nad Al Sheba earlier in the year but came unstuck in the Golden Shaheen. Question marks ring out on this one being good enough for such a prestigious prize and is worth taking a chance on leaving it.

Captain Gerrard – A note in the racing post today suggests trainer Bryan Smart will only risk his charge if the ground is suitable. I can’t see it being suitable for him and thus he probably wont run. He’s worth taking a chance with if running based on his explosive effort in the Palace House at Newmarket earlier in the year. Wasn’t seen at his best behind Equiano at Chantilly last time up and would be a major player here if taking his chance (16/1 Bet365)

Equiano – An unexposed colt who showed explosive speed to give classy Marchand D’Or a race last time looks to have a major chance in this Group 1. He hasn’t had much racing this year so there’s a chance he’s ready to peak around now. Interesting the trainer comes over here for this big prize instead of mopping up some weaker races in his native France. Olivier Peslier is a top-class jockey who takes the ride, and this horse is dangerously unexposed at 16/1 (Paddy Power).

Kingsgate Native – Shocked many an informed judge with his massive debut display at this meeting last year in the Windsor Castle Stakes. He made no mistake by running the smart more-experienced Fleeting Spirit to a close race in the Flying Childers next time out, before running the older horses ragged in the Nunthorpe stakes and scoring in style. He then went for the Prix L’Abbeye where things didn’t go right for him but still ran a massive race in defeat finishing second to Benbaun. He looks a major player this year and his price of 8/1 is huge.

Fleeting Spirit – Wowed us all with a scintillating display in the Temple Stakes on her seasonal re-appearance and there’s no doubt this filly is a top-class sprinting animal. However there has to be call for the chances she’ll bounce based on such a fast run last time. An exercept from Nick Mordin’s column is an interesting read “I found that since Raceform adjusted their speed ratings formula in 2000 there have been 19 three year old fillies which earned ratings of 110 or more over five furlongs off lay-offs of 90 days or more before June in Britain. All nineteen lost next time out. In the four previous seasons I found five three year old fillies which had earned speed ratings of 50 or more (the rough equivalent on Raceform’s old rating scale) in the same circumstances. Again all five lost next time out. In other words the 24 fastest five furlong performances by three year old fillies on their seasonal debuts over the last dozen years have all been followed by defeat next time out.” Based on this I think her current price of 9/4 is plenty short enough and I’ll be willing to look elsewhere for some value.

Verdict:
It should be worth giving another chance to a solid sprinter in KINGSGATE NATIVE who won a Nunthorpe as a two-year-old against quality older sprinters, and is sure to have improved between two and three. The record of three-year-olds first time up in this race bode well for Kingsgate Native, as both Pivotal (96) and Dominica (02) both won this race first time up as a three-year-old and he bids to do the same. Matsunosuke is worth a minor covering each-way stake at large prices as he has the ability to run a race here.
2pts each-way @ 8/1 with Bet365, PaddyPower, BlueSQ, VCBet
0.25pts each-way @ 100/1 with Betfred and BlueSQ

Written by Jamie Taylor

Yeats a lightly raced son of Sadler’s Wells was once favourite for the Epsom Derby, only to be sidelined through injury. He made his return when winning the Coronation Cup, before landing the Ascot Gold Cup twice, and an unsuccessful tilt at the Melbourne Cup. His return this year came in the Vintage Crop Stakes at Navan, and he looked as good as ever shrugging off the challenge of smart performer Red Moloney. He has an excellent turn of foot which is crucial in these staying races and he settles so well which enables him to see out these marathon distances races, if there’s going to be any horse that’ll do the three-timer in this race in the near future, then Yeats has to be strongly fancied to achieve this feat.

Finalmente is improving all the time, and ran a stormer when fourth behind Yeats in this race last year. Having over 20lbs to find on official figures, he plugged on dourly to hold onto fourth place beaten just over eight lengths. A winner of the Henry II Stakes, a Group 2 over two miles at Sandown on his latest start, he can be counted somewhat lucky for that victory. A sedate early pace saw Frankie Dettori seize the initiative to set out and make all judging the fractions to perfection. Balkan Knight and Royal And Regal were cutting down Simon Callaghan’s gelding but the line came just in time, whether he’ll be able to continue the upward rise in form is debateable against such quality opposition.

Balkan Knight a likeable gelding trained by David Elsworth has only scored at Listed level thus far, so his latest effort behind Finalmente provides encouragement that he still retains ability at the age of eight. It’s his first try at the Ascot Gold Cup but he wasn’t disgraced over this distance at Longchamp last autumn when finishing a length and a half behind Yeats in fourth place in the Prix Du Cadran. He to looks to break the stat barrier of horses no older than six landing this race for quite a while but Drum Taps proved it can be done when winning this race aged seven, many moons ago.

Godolphin are a force to be reckoned with in this race, having landed this event three times in the last nine years, and they saddle both Regal Flush and Sagara. The latter poses more interest to me of the two, but will need to improve on his debut effort in England after finishing a poor last at Goodwood over what now looks an inadequate twelve furlongs, despite his fast-finishing third in last years Arc. The interesting thing is that Godolphin acquired Papineau from Andre Fabre in 2005, the season in which he won the Ascot Gold Cup for them, they also targeted a twelve-furlong race at Goodwood for his initial prep-run (although Papineau won that, and then won the Henry II Stakes). There are many similarities here, and Sagara really has to be closely monitored. Regal Flush on the other hand doesn’t strike me as a horse capable of staying this marathon trip, having wilted under pressure behind Samuel at York last time, and behind Tranquil Tiger at Newbury previous.

Diamond Quest is an interesting runner for Andrew Balding who’s stable are absolutely flying at present. Unexposed over this sort of trip, he’s 1-1 over two-miles and has won races over middle distances also. A winner of races from a mile to two miles he clearly has plenty of race and a wicked turn of foot to boot, another who’s looking to break the “older than six” bracket but he’s a big price and could sneak into a place.

Geordieland is a horse we know all to well about, especially in this exact race last year when seemingly cantering and ready to take aim at Yeats, however when asked for his effort the Jamie Osborne trained gelding decided to down-tools. A master class ride from Shane Kelly (and you cant say that too often) in the Yorkshire Cup last time saw him get his head in-front under the kid-glove treatment, he didn’t look to enthusiastic to go about his job, and although he’s got the form in the bag and an excellent cruising speed he’ll most likely be found wanting again when asked to go about his business.

Septimus really impressed when stepped up in trip and comprehensively put Geordieland to the sword the last time these pair met in the Doncaster Cup over eighteen furlongs last September. Rumours surrounding this ones participation are putting me off, and there’s the obvious worry he may be better than Yeats thus knocking the favoured ones chances of landing the historic treble. Plenty of market support for the son of Sadler’s Wells today suggests Septimus is going to take his chance, and if he does he’s going to be a major player.

Allegretto is a lovely mare, and an idle one to boot (like most women, ha!) however she had her limits exposed in this last year and it’s more than likely going to happen again. A below-par run behind Finalmente dampens any faith for her backers and she can be avoided in a stronger renewal of the race.

Le Miracle posted a solid effort when third here last year, and looked to have second place in the bag until Geordieland took his measure, a winner of the Prix Du Cadran beating Yeats and Balkan Knight last Autumn, he’s held by Coastal Path who’s blown him away on two recent starts. A nice sort but will probably struggle to do anything drastic here, could sneak third or fourth.

Honolulu is looking less straight-forward by the run, and kept on into a labouring fifth behind Geordieland in the Yorkshire Cup, he’s going to struggle to get involved against much classier rivals here, and will probably bid to set the pace for his stable companions.

Finally we have Coastal Path, a massive long-striding half-brother to the classy Reefscape, who himself came a gallant second to Yeats in 2006. This Andre Fabre trained four-year-old just oozes class and possesses a lethal turn of foot. Still unbeaten after six races and was toying with his rivals en-route to an easy and dominant success at Longchamp in Group 2 company last time, this colt looks a massive threat to Yeats claim to win that third Gold Cup, I firmly believe Coastal Path will win this race, and market support today suggests connections do aswell.

Race Trends:

• The last 8 winners had previously won a Group 1 or Group 2 race
• 8 of the last 14 winners ran in the Henry II Stakes
• 5 of the last 13 winners ran in the Yorkshire Cup
• Just one winner older than six in the last 68 years
• 12 of the last 15 winners had won over a minimum of two miles
• 10 of the last 13 winners had won earlier in the season

Verdict
In what looks a trappy renewal of the Ascot Gold Cup; it looks like COASTAL PATH will be carrying my win money. He’s looked every inch a superstar in each of his victory to date and several of his formlines suggests he’s more than capable of putting this field to the sword. An each-way alternative looks to be Sagara who’s taken an interesting route through into this race and is a solid price.

2pts win – Coastal Path @ 3/1 with PaddyPower
0.5pt EW – Sagara @ 16/1 with William Hill

Written by Jamie Taylor

The most notable is that only one filly has managed to place in this race since 1990, that being James Fanshawes’ Soviet Song. Red Evie tried and failed last year, Peeress the year before that, Six Perfections and Nebraska Tornado in 2004, and so on.

This year sees both Finsceal Beo and Darjina try and buck the trend which is holding so strongly against the fillies. The former a dual Guineas winner who nearly made it a triple but for being cruelly denied at Longchamp in the French 1000 Guineas, has been campaigned over further distances since her disappointing effort behind Indian Ink here in soft ground last summer in the Coronation Stakes. She’d already had three really hard races in the space of three weeks before contesting that race, and has held her form well as a four-year-old, most recently running a good second to Duke Of Marmalade, himself a leading fancy for the Prince Of Wales stakes, last time. Darjina on the other hand hasn’t won for four races now, and she looked to struggle last time behind Sageburg as when asked for maximum her trademark rapid turn of foot simply wasn’t there. This could have been because she wasn’t quite wound up enough after flying back from Dubai, or simply because she’s already peaked as a three-year-old? She still remains a classy filly however, and a very dangerous prospect in this race.

Fourteen of the last Sixteen winners of the Queen Anne have been four-year-olds, only Ramonti and Cape Cross have bucked this trend (both trained by Saeed Bin Suroor). Suroor doesn’t field any entrants in this year’s race but would have had Creachadoir at his disposal but for a recent accident on the gallops. The current entrants which fit this trend are, Arabian Gleam, Astronomer Royal, Honoured Guest, Mount Nelson, Sageburg, Tariq, Darjina and finally Finsceal Beo.

Another interesting fact to note is that Saeed Bin Suroor and Sir Michael Stoute have saddled ten winners from the last eleven renewals of the race in which either one, or both have runners. This year Sir Michael has Linngari as his only entrant, however the last time a horse as old as Linngari (six) won the race was Ardoon over thirty years ago.

Three of the last nine winners of this race, contested the Dubai Duty Free in Nad Al Sheba, a Group 1 contest ran over nine furlongs. Qualifiers for this trend are both Darjina and Linngari.

Fourteen of the last 27 winners ran in the Lockinge (9 of the last 11 were beaten at Newbury). These are Tariq (third), Cesare (fourth), Arabian Gleam (fifth), Haradasun (sixth), Al Qasi (eighth) and Astronomer Royal (last).

Another thing to be looking out for are fancied runners, eleven of the last twelve winners were in the first four in the betting, however no winning favourite since 1998. This stat I feel can be somewhat dismissed because by a horse’ four-year-old career their form is usually pretty well established and most of them run to form in such big races, thus ensuring the bookmaker generally has these events priced up correctly.

Haradasun is a horse who’s plenty short enough at the prices despite hailing from such a powerful stable at Ballydoyle, however rumours from down under suggests this son of Fusachi Pegasus suffers with a condition known as Anhydrosis. This condition is the inability to sweat properly, the sweat glands shut down when most needed, and the horse will pant excessively for hours on end as a result, this will also perfect its performance. There are various dietary supplements which claim to assist the condition, and Ballydoyle will know the best methods to treat such a condition if the claims are true.

Cesare on the other hand is a horse I very much like, his record round Ascot is somewhat remarkable, 4 wins from 6 runs – a solid run here behind Ramonti twice last year in Group 1’s also back up his credentials. You can forget his last run in the Lockinge, he was forced to come wide and was mucked around at a vital stage in a race which favoured the stands rail, Ascot is more his cup of tea and he’s been kept fresh for this – only worry is the old stat surrounding six-year-olds and over have not won this race since Ardoon over 30 years ago.

Arabian Gleam is held by Tariq on various pieces of form and there’s nothing to suggest he’s going to improve past the Peter Chapple-Hyam trainer colt, however I’m not convinced he will stay a truly run mile. The Lockinge was a slowly-run tactical affair meaning he was able to settle in-behind runners saving vital reserves of energy ahead of a short late sustained burst of speed, thus resulting in him snatching third. The proximity of the Chapple-Hyam second string and smart sprinter Al Qasi also adds weight to this chain of thought, and Tariq a horse who showed enough speed as a two-year-old will most probably be over bet and thus shorter than he should be on what he’s achieved.

Astronomer Royal is a big price after flashing home to nail Abraham Lincoln in the Greenlands Stakes (Group 3 over 6F). The four-year-old is a winner of the French 2000 Guineas last year, and although it’s looking like a weak renewal he had this years Lockinge winner in-behind him. Was most probably in need of the run when finishing last of the bunch at Newbury in the Lockinge, and showed the benefit for that run when winning last time over a trip shorter than ideal, has shown plenty of zip and went well here in the St James Palace stakes behind Excellent Art at the Royal meeting last year, he’s of interest for the each-way thieves amongst us.

Sageburg an interesting sort who’s said to have improved in absolute abundance from three to four confirmed the initial thoughts when comprehensively putting stable-mate Darjina in her place last time. A winner on a variety of different conditions and fits a trend or two is a dangerous unexposed sort in this contest. He’s worth watching for any market support.

Spirito Del Vento booked his ticket to Royal Ascot with a win in a Group 3 contest at Chantilly last time, and Olivier Peslier his usual pilot prefers Sageburg, although Cristophe Lemaire is no poor replacement. However he should lack the necessary class to get involved at this level, and will be a shock should he come home with top honours.

Linngari an interesting entrant for Sir Michael Stoute has been globetrotting in various destinations since winning a Listed race at Haydock back in 2005, and makes his homecoming in this Group 1 event. A poor show last time in the Dubai Duty Free can be put down to a poor stall position and has been given plenty of time to recuperate from the switch in climates. Like Cesare he has the age-old stat to defy in that no horse aged six and above has won this race in over 30 years, but if there’s going to be one who’ll do it – it has to be either of these two. Another interesting thing to note is that Linngari has a terrific record when fresh; discounting his run in the Lingfield Derby Trial over a trip far of his best, his form after a break reads (1,6,1,1). A winner too on the all-weather also strengthens Linngari’s claims, as it’s been noticed by myself that all-weather form has transferred particularly well to Ascot since it’s been revamped.

The Trends:

• 14 of the last 16 winners were four-year-olds
• 14 of the last 27 winners ran in the Lockinge Stakes (9 of the last 11 Lockinge runners were beaten at Newbury)
• 11 of the last 12 winners started in the first four in the betting but no winning favourite since 1998
• 3 of the last 9 winners contested the Dubai Duty Free at Nad Al Sheba
• Saeed Bin Suroor and Sir Michael Stoute have won 10 of the last 11 renewals in which one or both have had runners
• Only 1 placed filly since 1990

Verdict:
In a tricky renewal of this age-old race, it could pay to side with LINNGARI who has a terrific record when fresh, and you can be sure that Sir Michael Stoute will have his charge primed for the occasion. Ryan Moore who rides the selection very rarely makes mistakes in such races as these, and he really is a pilot to have on your side when having a few quid on.

2pts each-way @ 9/1 with Stan James or BetterBet

Written by Jamie Taylor

Passion Fruit – Third in this last year but that run looks way above her level and the sedate early gallop probably helped. This looks tougher and looks likely to struggle.

Steam Cuisine – Really came to hand at the end of last year and clocked a solid time when winning over seven furlongs at Newbury. Hasn’t really shown much this year, but should be around fourth or fifth at the finish – this may be a tad too far though.

Treat – Has the best form in the race but has it all to prove, Ryan Moore a big booking and Ed Dunlop has been given the task to coax more improvement from this filly.

Verdict:
In what looks a solid listed contest for the venue, it could pay to go each-way with KASUMI who is sure to go well for your money at massive odds. Hughie Morrison is a shrewd handler and instead of targeting a handicap off this current mark of 85 is instead going for black-type and that’s worth taking note of. Fondled should make a bold bid to stop her though, and is worth a small saver.

My Bets:
2pts EW – Kasumi (Best Morning Odds)
0.5pt CFC – Kasumi, Fondled, Flying Clarets
0.5pt CTC – Kasumi, Fondled, Flying Clarets

Willie Mullins has a fantastic record in this race, and always primes a decent string for the event. Anything he sends over for this race is worth checking out before placing a bet on the event.

Year Winner Jockey Trainer Age
2007 Cork All Star Barry Geraghty Jessica Harrington 5yo
2006 Hairy Molly Paul Carberry Joseph Crowley 6yo
2005 Missed That Ruby Walsh Willie Mullins 6yo
2004 Total Enjoyment Jim Culloty Tommy Cooper 5yo
2003 Liberman Tony McCoy Martin Pipe 5yo
2002 Pizarro Jamie Spencer Edward O’Grady 5yo
2000 Joe Cullen Charlie Swan Willie Mullins 5yo
1999 Monsignor Brendan Powell Mark Pitman 5yo
1998 Alexander Banquet Ruby Walsh Willie Mullins 5yo

Key Trends:
* Willie Mullins has saddled 5 out of the last 12 winners of the race (41.67%)
* 12 of the last 15 winners of the race were Irish Trained (80%)
* 7 of the last 9 winners of the race were five-year-olds (77.77%)
* 13 of the last 15 winners had all won their previous race (86.67%)

Now that’s the stats looked at, and basically we’d do a lot worse than to look for a Willie Mullins trained five-year-old.

A good few words floating round for this Zaarito and has been well backed to do the business, however I cant have Colm Murphy’s horse, and think it’s best to look elsewhere.

My Shortlist:

APT APPROACH 5-y-o b g
Trainer: Willie Mullins
Criteria: ****
Well regarded sort of Willie Mullins who created a favourable impression when landing a bumper at Gowran Park on his first start. He cleared away in good fashion and from what I could see, possessed a decent turn of foot to boot. The cat looks already out of the bag in terms to his price for the race but it must be noted he did drift in the betting for his debut run, and in such an open affair, I think it’s better looking for a value price for a small bet.

COUSIN VINNY 5-y-o b g
Trainer: Willie Mullins
Criteria: ****
A horse which really impressed me when showing an explosive turn of foot when his chances looked slim of making a winning debut. Held up off a slow pace, he slowly got into contention and despite running very green when asked to pick up, eventually got the hang of things and rocketed home. At the current prices he looks my most likely selection, with the expected improvement and that turn of foot really could do the business up that Cheltenham hill.

THE OLD PRETENDER 5-y-o b g
Trainer: Carl Llewellyn
Criteria: *
Really impressed me when making a winning debut at Huntingdon when stringing out a weak field. Found wanting last time behind the Nicky Henderson trained Mad Max (Reportedly 10L better than Gold Award at home), but I’d be looking to give this nice strapping horse another chance as he’s surely better than what we saw at Newbury last time.

BIG EARED FRAN 5-y-o b g
Trainer: David Pipe
Criteria: *
Formerly trained by Tor Sturgis who’s said in the press this is the best horse she’s trained, and was quickly snapped up by Thomas Barr and moved to David Pipe after making an impressive winning debut at Sandown in November. The Pipe’s know how to ready one for this race having won this with Liberman in 2003, and should be watched for market support.

The Duke’s Selection:
Cousin Vinny
Each-way @ 16/1

A strong looking renewal with many leading trainers represented by plenty of runners. Aiden O’ Brien who has won this 4 times in the past ten years is represented by Henrythenavigator as well as a couple of other entrants who don’t look as smart. South Dakota impressed on his second start and he was 2nd in a listed contest, he has reportedly been working behind Henrythenavigator so it would be interested if he was allowed to take his chance after impressing at Gowran Park winning in a hack canter. By Kingmambo he will love the fast ground and he is reported to be one of the better juveniles at Ballydoyle this term. He looks to be the yards main hope in the race and there are big vibes coming out about Henrythenavigator. As the yards has a strong record in the race you have to take note and he looks a big player. Pencil Hill impressed last time over 5f having won over 6f on debut. He has a nice turn of foot but he was all out over 6f on debut and that would be a worry for me as I would expect him to be there abouts 1f out but I wouldn’t be sure if he could hang on in that final furlong. Peter Chapple – Hyam fields 3 entries in this and all three look really nice types. Declaration of War is the one with the most experience having twice ran and twice been successful. Having won a decent maiden on his debut at Newmarket he should a really strong turn of foot to win the Woodcote at Epsom and was staying on strongly at the end. Winker Watson who hasn’t been seen since winning a moderate Newbury maiden shapes well at home but is no star. Orientalist Art the other entry will be ridden by Seb Sanders and he ran a race full of promise at Newmarket on debut. However he will not have it easy to reverse the form with the winner Luck Money. He is reported to be the most likely runner from the yard but that worries me as I would have Prefered to have seen Declaration Of War who has stronger form. Paul Cole’s intended runner showed a lot of early speed that day and quickened up nicely inside the 2f pole. He has been working very well since that run and a big run is expected.

Summary:
Richard Hannon who had the 2nd last year in Major Cadeaux doesn’t look to have a big hand this time round. His best on form would probably be Berbice who stayed on well behind Declaration Of War in the Woodcote last time. A big strong sort he looks the type to do better when upped to 7f in due course. Both Blues Minor and Billion Dollar Kid are highly regarded but would face hard tasks making their debut in a race like this. Barry Hills however does have a couple of nice types in this and I was very impressed with Bobs Surprise when he made a winning debut at Goodwood a couple of weeks back. Beating a few nice types he powered clear under a hands and heels drive and looked sure ot improve for the run. He showed plenty of speed that day and once asked to quicken he done it in very good style. He strikes me as a very smart prospect and I can see him running a big race in this. His stable mate Dark Angel was not disgraced behind a smart sort on debut and put that experience to good use when winning at Chester next time out. He was slowly away on that occasion but stayed on nicely to collect. The form has been let down since but he is a likeable type and 6f will suit. Bobs Surprise looks the better of the two but Dark Angel certainly looks up to listed class. Art Advisor done the job well last time and could go well for his connections but the form of his win doesn’t look up to this whilst Burnwynd Boy and Aaim To Storm who thought out what has been a good trial for this race in recent years also don’t quick look up to it. Al Muheer would be the one at big odds I would look to having stayed on very well last time in the National Stakes behind two very highly regarded fillies who now head for the Queen Mary. He may be a big price here as he is still a maiden but I’m confident he will be nearer first than last. Newbury maiden winner Coasting was very impressive that day and the form has worked out very well. Despite not getting the best of luck in running he came with a late run under Mick Kinane and won with a bit to spare. Amanda Perrett has a good record here and I wouldn’t rule this horse out in a race where he will get a strong gallops and he showed at Newbury that he had a decent turn of foot and a very good attitude despite the ground being a bit on the slow side. Fast ground he will be ideal and I quite like his chances. The final one I like is my idea of a big player and that is Mick Channon’s Yem Kinn. The yards horses always come on for their debuts and this horse ran a pleasing race when beating some nice type son debut. The 2nd is held in high regard by Mark Johnston and the 3rd Swiss Franc who reopposes here won well next time at Newmarket before chasing home Mick Channon’s best colt Hatta Fort at Windsor. The 4th Ruff Diamond is also expected to run here and he won very well next time. Yem Kinn holds all of them on form and what’s more he has course experience which is normally vital. He works very well at home just behind Hatta Fort and has looked as if he would be even better over 6f. The ground was a bit slow for him at Ascot but his class saw him through and he has really improved. Connections think the world of him and Mick Channon knows what it takes to win this contest. Yem Kinn has looked very useful at home and comes here with plenty of yard confidence behind him. Of the remainder Brian Meehan has booked Jamie Spencer on Earnie Owl who is making his debut in this, he is reportedly very sharp and useful but needs to be to win this. Overall this is a very strong renewal and Warsaw is the one of the Irish runners I like. He has done enough to suggest he is decent and I expect him to be there or there abouts. However both Coasting and Yem Kinn really impressed me in their maidens and they both look to have potent turn of foots. Fast ground will suit and they both look exciting sorts. I think they represent big each way players. Bobs Surprise is the other I will be looking to back each way and Declaration Of War is the pick of Peter Chapple-Hyam’s for me if he runs, it’s a pity he is a doubtful runner at present. Henrythenavigator is certainly going to be short after such an impressive win on debut and is already favourite for the Guineas next year he has to be considered. However for me this is between the Channon and Perrett horses who made pleasing debuts in above average maidens. Preference is for Yem Kinn who beat a whole host of winners last time and won with a lot in hand. 6f will really suit him and he has plenty going for him in what will be a fast run contest.

Whilst acknowledging one of the studied races took place at York, during Ascot’s renovation, it can be said that the draw is an important factor in the Kings Stand. 7 out of the 10 winners have emerged from a stall 8 or lower, with horses drawn middle to high seemingly disadvantaged. Indeed Takeover Target last year was the first horse since 2000 to exploit a double figure stall.

Another telling factor when you decide upon your punt would seem to be the horse’s last time out performance. No fewer than 6 of the 10 winners won their previous start so, and no winner had finished worse than 6th last time out. So, despite the fact half of the 10 winners went off at SPs of 16/1 or greater, you are looking for a runner in decent, and preferably winning form.

A lack of course winning form should not be seen as a disadvantage - only 2 of the 10 winners studied had such past form - but distance winning form seems to be essential - only 1 winner had not won over the 5f trip before.

Other observations I have made are that success in this event is split 50-50 between UK trainers and Overseas trainers [3 France, 2 Australia ], with the Irish failing to find one good enough.

7 of the 10 winners were coming off a recent run [within last 30 days], whilst 2 of the 3 who had had longer layoffs were the Australian pair, both of which came straight from the big 6f Newmarket Handicap run in March at Flemington - this year Miss Andretti comes fresh from winning that very race, run at Caulfield this year.{mosimage}

At the time of writing there are still 37 runners declared for the race and with one the most important factors, the draw, yet to be decided, an Ante-Post bet is a bit of a minefield. However I have whittled the field down to a personal shortlist of 3, albeit the layers prices reflect the good chances I think they have.

My main fancy is the Aussie raider:

MISS ANDRETTI - in wonderful form, completing the hat-trick in the aforementioned Newmarket Handicap in Australia , that race compatriots Choisir and Takeover Target ran in before the Kings Stand. Has won on Soft, Good and Firm going. 6/1

Whilst, depending on going, I like the chances of the following two:

TAX FREE - seems to be on an upward curve this season, putting in arguably his career best last time out at Naas defeating Dandy Man by a length, following his maiden Group 3 win the time before. If the ground is Good or Softer will have a good chance. 10/1

BENBAUN - wonderfully consistent gelding who finished a short head second in this race last year. Won a Group 3 at The Curragh last time out, defeating Moss Vale easily by 2 1/2L. Hard to keep out of the frame if he gets his favoured Good - Good/Firm going. 9/1

Norton’s Advice:
2pts Win – Miss Andretti @ 6/1 with

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