Punters Diary: Week 2
Monday 29th December: Just how you like a week to start. Four bets and three comprehensive winners. Diamond Harry was 4/5 on his trainer’s reputation. Had he been a Seven Barrows inmate, he’d have been 2/5. And the other selection was a Nicky Henderson recruit. Dave’s Dream. Anything over hurdles is classed as a bonus before he really makes his reputation over fences reportedly.
My only bet at Great Leighs was Tartan Gunna. Finally managed to break on terms but wasn’t able to contend with the impressive Dover Street Art. The Gunna will surely be able to win a race in the near future, and hopefully I get my money back in 2009 after losing stakes on him the last twice. My only other bet of the day was Sublimity. I really rate Punjabi, and to get within a head of him when reportedly only half fit made him a max bet here for me. 3/1 was a scandalous price on form, and even though he finished well, won’t have enough to stop a Nicky Henderson 1-2 in the Champion.
Tuesday 30th December: Only had the two bets today. Had a word for Why Nee Amy in the morning, unfortunately missed the fancy prices, but it was all irrelevant in the end, finishing unplaced. Win and place money down the Gazbalou. Thankfully it only took an hour to get some of my money back. Imaginary Diva won what looked an extremely weak Nursery. Officer Mor appears to be regressing at a rate of knots, and connections are probably desperate to get rid based on the 2yo’s latest runs. The Cuckoo will almost certainly come on for the run, and hopefully after being dropped a few pounds too. The only disappointing thing is I didn’t have the balls to take the 9/4 in the morning. I made the Diva a 4/5 shot so the 6/4 I finally availed myself too was still value, albeit it some 25% less of the price.
Wednesday 31st December: Two bits of information, and 3 losing bets. Probably sums up 2008, and thank fuck its over, because 2009 is Year of the Punter after all ay? First up Nawamees, that was considered a moral. There is certain kind of information that I berate and will not be listening to in 2009, and this is another prime example, as is I Confess. Not whinging, as the only stupid individual in all of this… is me! I then backed Tricky Trev each way in the next… unplaced. And the horse that won? Cut And Thrust, the horse I’ve been chasing after being given the heads up on its handicap debut. Joy! Roll on 2009…
Thursday 1st January: Again, not a vintage day, and not a great start to 2009. Ballydub was probably the only bet where I can say I was remotely unlucky. Tartak and Franchoek were comprehensively put in their place. I done a few today, but learnt a fair bit about the Festival markets for my money. Talk of Big Bucks for the World Hurdle after winning the handicap off a high mark… would he have won it though if Ballydub had stood up? I very much doubt it! Tartak was put in his place easily by Calgary Bay, but that will have to improve no end for me to win or even place in the Arkle. And Franchoek is gone, although we probably knew that before the race, yet I still availed myself idiotically.
The most frustrating thing about Franchoek was that on my tissue he wasn’t the value selection, or anywhere near it. After timing at its finest, but the value selections finished first and second. Nicholls said before Five Dream finished third at Sandown that he was considered badly handicapped… so how was he meant to compete on this stage? What is the point in doing my own tissues if I’m going to totally ignore them? After reading Dave Nevison’s latest book, I totally berated him for doing the same thing, and on the first day of a new year, with new starts… I go and do the exact same thing!
Friday 2nd January: Didn’t have a bet, and looking back through the results it doesn’t look as though I missed anything.
Saturday 3rd January: After both national hunt meetings went the way of the weather there was only one place left to go… the pub! Bit gutted I didn’t get a chance to lay Mahonia at 2’s and back Clay Hollister at just over 5’s, but hopefully the race gets rerouted to Kempton next week! On FA Cup weekend it was great to see my boy’s start 2009 with a bang. I’m not talking about my beloved Canaries getting a battling one-all draw at The Valley, but Chris Wall’s stable starting the year with an easy victory in the Conditions Stakes at Leafy. On paper he was a moral, and won more emphatically in my opinion than the distance suggests. Imaginary Diva proved what a shocking race she ran in during the week by getting thoroughly destroyed at Lingfield. Excuses can be made, but she’d never have won. In fairness a poor days racing for a Saturday, exemplified with a 58 rated horse winning the first leg of the Scoop 3!
Sunday 4th January: After waking up at 6:30 somewhere deep in CB8, taking 45 minutes to march back to my car, before proceeding on the 90 minute drive home all in aid of Sunday league football, I was devastated to hear the match was abandoned at 9:45! The match was due to be played in Esher, less than a mile from Sandown. If that had been called off the day before, this was always going to be cancelled! Why did I bother with the long journey back? 5 points top of the league at Christmas, and second place have two games in hand… any dropped points from now on in will be costly!
So I woke up especially early and all for nothing! I could have spent an extra few hours being a Teddy Bear to the ‘Nugget’. Teddy Bear was all I was good for that night, after falling asleep early doors, probably at her dismay. Oh well. When my last pal left me in De Niro’s with the ‘Nugget’ I knew I was making a fateful error. I was never going to stay the trip out, and instead of waking up at 7:30 in the warmth, I had to contend with a walk home in the freezing cold… the fucking freezing cold!! All credit to any man that gets up at those hours in the winter! After getting home I slept all through racing, waking up in time to see The Power destroy Barney in World-Record fashion.
A long debate ensued on how The Power and Tony McCoy have never been prominent in the running for Sports Personality of the Year. What more do either have to do to be respected for their achievements? 14 and 13 time champions respectively, whereas some silly cow that jumped in a swimming pool last summer was odds-on favourite to take home the trophy. In the scheme of things it’s disgraceful. After having a conversation with an ex-flat jockey on Saturday he pointed out why Tony McCoy is such an athlete. On average, that man will ride 5 horses a day, over an average of say 20 furlongs. He is pushing away for longer, he is invariably in the finish of most races, in a ding dong battle up the straight, he’s invariably booked on horses that need smashing to pieces to get them home, he travels relentlessly up and down the country, to and from the Emerald-isle, and for what? People could use the excuse that Horse Racing is a low-key sport, but how many people give a shit about swimming or cycling apart from the Commonwealth or Olympic Games? People are oblivious to most Olympic sports bar Athletics unless it’s on the main stage, yet the majority of the country are aware of the Grand National and The Derby. Scandalous. I could go on, but can’t be bothered!
Looking to tomorrow’s racing; laying Romantic Queen at around 5/2 looks the only stand out bet for me!
Punters Diary: Week 1
As of this week, I shall be writing a new feature for the site. An honest punting diary of my exploits from the previous weeks events, a little like Dave Nevison’s in style, but a little varied in content with the intentions of it being fairly light hearted, honest, and thus more losses!
A little bit about me before I begin. I’d say I have a fair understanding of the form book, particularly on the level. I am extremely good with numbers and analysing situations, but I have about as much discipline as a pissed-up suicide bomber. This is probably the main reason why I sit behind a desk everyday under another man’s whip, in frustration of how some clowns can make the game pay. Or at least that is their claims. Serial bullshitters are the Bain of my existence, as are compulsive whingers. Bad rides go on, bad information gets passed on, it’s part and parcel of the game. But, if you have an inkling of sense between your ears you can profit from these in the future!
My punting is predominantly based around novices in both spheres, and unexposed horses in general. But at the other end of the spectrum I appear to profit in top grade races so increase stakes at top grade tracks and meetings. Whether or not this is a wise idea I’m yet to fathom, but I’m a strong believer that the form stands up more at these top meetings. I’m not a fan of handicaps over the sticks in the slightest, and avoid at almost all costs! Flat handicaps for unexposed horses however are a totally different ball game! Here goes…
Monday 22nd Dec: Probably not the finest week to begin my punting exploits. I had three bets lined up at lunchtime, all of which I was super confident about! 2:30 Lingfield, Theatre Street of Noseda’s. Reportedly a very good filly, but today wasn’t her day. 5/1 in the win market and 2.2 in the place. Lovely price to lay a place!! Unfortunately my problems began at around 2:15. Just as I stuck up my place lay at 2.3, the thing began to drift like a turd in a kiddie’s paddling pool… 2.4…2.6…2.8…3.2…!!! Come 2:28 I still hadn’t been accommodated. Being the genius I am, I chased the price out all the way to 3.4, fully matched… relief…!! All for 30 fucking seconds!! As soon as the gates were opened it was one way traffic and she was unlucky not to win!! Sitting at my desk shaking my head… I should have known it was going to be one of these days… weeks… lives!!
A fair bit lighter after backing a 2/5 loser, my next bet was only 30 minutes away in the next at Leafy. 3/1 Epsom Salts. I had been given the heads up two runs back, knew the form with Chris Wall’s was good, and believed the step up in trip would bring the required improvement to defy the handicapper. Backed into 9/4 on the off I was confident. The in-running market didn’t look too hot, before a quick surge back into Evens, 1.6, the infamous 1.3 which I love to get past… the 1.1 which basically signifies your jockey has just weighed in. Close Betfair mobile. It wasn’t until Betfair failed to top up my Available To Bet Balance, I bothered checking the result. Sick!
Now 3.5 points down, with one left to play. Thankfully Mr. Keniry managed to steer Musical Script home for another course victory. Dead level on the day, but what could have, and what should have been! At least I’ll get my money back on Theatre Street next time in the win market, was my only consolation!
Tuesday 23rd December: With renewed confidence and more ‘winners’ to back, I was ready for the Tuesday affair. I hate Southwell. Shit hole of a place. The form only stands up at … Southwell. Some may say this is good and easy to analyse form, but… whatever, I never get on the right side of one there! Off to Fontwell it was… first things first, Or Jaune v. Chiaro looked a match in the betting, however not to me! At a combined price of near on 1/5 they were scandalously short, and had to be apposed. I backed No Panic at 5/1. After beating both favourites off relatively early in the race it was a ding-dong up the run in. ‘1st, Number 6, Radetsky March’ 25/1 winners… ya don’t need it!! Towel thrown in for the day.
Wednesday 24th December: Bored senseless. Pointless day in the calendar bar the piss up. Didn’t get into club. Home by 1. Not happy.
Thursday 25th December: Missed a winner here. Was frantically ringing round for a price on my uncle being an absolute cunt. No one was prepared to lay 1 banana to 12 bananas. Alas he was.
Friday 26th December: The day I’d been waiting for! My Christmas! And this year was not only spent at Kempton, but in The Royal Box at Kempton!! Just a little out of place, standing in the same room as Jim Lewis and Clive Smith all day, but had an absolutely amazing day nonetheless. An absolute punting bonanza! This really was a what-could-have-been day. I backed Fairyland each way after being given the heads up last term when finishing second behind Golan Way. Back on better ground, would take all the beating. A word was going round the box that McCoy was really looking forward to riding Michael Flips in the first, and I was the only bastard left grimacing as the champ cruised to victory. I fancied The Market Man in the next, but didn’t play. Bullet dodged, good job! But there were no dodged bullets in the Christmas Hurdle. I had it between two. Punjabi and Harchibald. Punjabi win or Harchibald each way. As soon as the race went down to 7 runners there was only one option… to back the faller which in my opinion would have won and gone second favourite for the Champion. Again, that money is only lent and I’ll definitely get it back next time!!
Next up was Kauto. I couldn’t be bothered to get out of bed early enough to get the 6/4 with Ladbrokes, so succumbed to the 2.02 on Betfair. Winners a winner et al, but the serious value was missed. In hindsight I still definitely got the value. Kauto simply loves Kempton and there wasn’t a worry turning for home, bar his standard last fence blooper. Alas the entire course erupted. In the next there was a word going around for Supreme Duke. At 25/1 it wouldn’t hurt too much to have a small financial interest. At times I thought the win money was possible let alone the place money. True to form, 4th. The only ‘away’ bet I had all day was to back Double Act each way at Wolverhampton. Absolutely mangled last time out, Kirby was heard to apologise when coming back in saying he should have won comfortably. The horse is known to have breathing problems so probably failed to go through with his effort… a drop down in trip might be required.
Saturday 27th December: An absolute punting bonanza, this time sat in my favourite place… in front of the box with the Betfair machine at the ready! Why didn’t I go out last night and get so far hammered I couldn’t wake up Saturday… or Sunday for that! Note to self for the future; never lay in running again, no matter how much value you think you’re getting!! Notre Pere, Fleet Street and The Dukes Speech effectively ruined what could have been a good day. I love my novice hurdlers, and Walkon was a moral at Chepstow. Upsides Zaynar at the last, and a clear second in what was a hot Newbury hurdle, carrying a penalty to boot. It had to win, and alas did. What was the most overwhelming thing was the price. 7/2! I had it down as a 6/4 shot, took 5/2 best odds guaranteed, and got some 7/2 in return. Thank you! Starluck was also a moral. Overpriced thanks to Mr Fleming’s reputation, 10/11 was a gift, and how this horse is not favourite for the Triumph still remains a mystery to me! The value is definitely with the two previously mentioned at 12s and 8s respectively, and although I have them at 20’s and 14s respectively, I’m not afraid to keep going in at those prices!
Original was also a good winner for me. Sadly I didn’t get the pre-race 200s on Betfair, or even 66s in the shops, but the 10/1 turning for home when travelling best of all was a gift. A sensationally timed ride from James Davies. He wasn’t scared to let the faces go off and set their own pace, then travel into it at his own accord. To then get headed and drive him back for me over the last fence was admirable. For the forgotten lad who has sadly only had 3 winners this season, it was remarkably cool to ride his own race… hopefully he’ll get some more rides in the near future off the back of that, which he richly deserves.
I had a fairly lumpy bet on Twist Magic. 2/1 was purely on the basis he might have remembered what happened at Sandown less than a month ago. Unfortunately he did remember, and was scared of every fence after his mid-air collision. My two only other bets of the day were Ingratitude and Will Be Done. Looking back, how did I lose? In-running lays, especially with Fleet Street which was an absolute skinner having laid 4/1, 3/1, 2/1, 6/4, then Evens! Ouchies!
Sunday 28th December: The day began with the intentions of having few bets, it didn’t end like that. Infact it ended rather abruptly with a few too many losers on the spin. Neptune Collognes was my idea of the winner, but was no value at 5/4. The value for me was 9/2 War Of Attrition each way. Never was worried about the place money after The Listeners early fall, but an impressive Exotic Dancer scuppered my plans for win money quite a way out. Some say Neptune had the Dancer covered, I am not in this camp but believe Neptune will come on a bundle for the run and hopefully will be priced up accordingly on his next run! Things had already got messy by this time, with a back of Siegemaster pre race, then a back of Trafford Lad in running to get back the losses. Casey Jones shocks all. Nice. A few more in running lays which didn’t go my way, resulting in another losing week. The worst thing is, I don’t think I can say I learnt anything today to get losses back! Ho hum!
All in all, a horrible week. The one day I did my share any kind of winning, I was too bothered about getting as much free Champagne inside me as possible! It was fairly decent plonk, but didn’t make up for a serious brains doing session. Oh well. Wouldn’t be right had I ended 2008 on a winning note. Looking back over the year, I’d say I probably just about broke even, due to a miserable December. An excellent Cheltenham as per usual, a good Aintree, a good Ascot, a good Goodwood, a few notable touches from good information, and a self produced sensational November kept my head above water. The same old faces helped contribute to red figures on my statements. Southwell, gaff national hunt tracks and shitty northern courses. Worst thing is I know full well where my losses come, but I refuse to eradicate them from the profile. Next year…. I will!!
And looking to next year…! I love an Antepost bet, whereas some don’t, I’m prepared to try and work my positions throughout the year in order to have ‘value’ on the day. In my opinion there are very few ‘value’ bets for Cheltenham at the moment.
Cousin Vinny is a ’value’ lay at the moment for the Supreme Novices in my opinion. 5/1 is awfully short, when 6s is available on Hurricane Fly. Not saying Hurricane is value, but it’s a no brainer which I’d rather be on. If I had to nail my colours to a mast, I’d say the 60s+ on Shoreacres and 25s on Michael Flips represent the only horses worth any kind of bet, but I can imagine this market will be shaken up a lot in the coming weeks.
Last week I was in the ’3/1 Tatenen for the Arkle is a joke camp’. This week I’m in the ‘5/1 Tatenen for the Arkle is cracking value camp’. Whilst I don’t believe he’s an absolute monster, a moral to win, I know that Nicholls is rarely wrong, and this will not start 5/1 on the day!
There is only one horse in the Champion Hurdle betting worth a bet now. Whilst I think Binocular is a moral, 16/1 about Punjabi is overly generous. Massive each way value! 4/1 a place is sensational, and will be seeing some of my beans in the coming days!
At the moment the Ballymore is looking a match to me between the two English horses heading the betting, in Max and Harry who are 10s and 4s respectively. I have them in doubles with Hurricane Fly (10s) for the Supreme, at 10s and 8s respectively, and expect the existing prices to contract further when Hurricane Fly is confirmed for the Supreme. I do like a cross double when a horse looks potentially ’doubly engaged’ for the Festival.
For the RSA, I think What A Friend is the most likely winner at this stage, but can’t see any value in the market at all.
I’ve been frantically searching the Champion Chase market for some each way ‘value’ to oppose the favourite with. I’m currently struggling to find any horse that will definitely turn up to take on Master Minded!!
The Ryanair… 9/2 Noland is fairly generous in my opinion considering its one of a few which is certain to run in the race, and has a leading chance on form! Voy Por at 6/1 also appeals, and at almost 2/1 the pair dutched could represent a good bet in my opinion.
Punchestowns was mightily impressive in the Long Walk a few weeks back, and to be honest 2/1 should be a fair price considering how he demolished his field. He beat most of the leading contenders that day, but the only concern was Henderson’s intentions to send him over fences this season. Did they not expect this to improve over the summer so remarkably? I can’t see any value at all as of yet. Maybe Fair Along each way at 20/1 in what looks a fairly poor field.
The Triumph. One of the only races I’ve had an interest in so far. Three bets in the race. 14s Zaynar, 14s Starluck and 20s Walkon. I’m very pleased with my book, yet still can’t believe Starluck and Walkon are considerably bigger prices than the aforementioned Henderson hope. 4/1 is a price purely on reputation.
The Gold Cup. Not a clue! Depends what condition both Nicholls horses turn up in. If Denman reappears in good form 2/1 will look massive. If he doesn’t….! Watching spectacle for me.
Until next time
YEEEEEEE HAAAAAAAAAAAA
Saturday’s Racing Tips
Another feast of racing looms upon us after Boxing Day’s joys and with Kauto Star’s emphatic romp securing a third King George in three years fresh in the memory, it seems somewhat hard to imagine we will see a performance almost half as impressive on a busy Saturday’s racing.
I will be kicking off with Presenting Copper (12:55 Chepstow) who is an improving mare with no questions over her temperament, the same of which can not be said for likely danger Herecomesthetruth. The Phillip Hobbs trained daughter of Presenting, has an excellent record at Chepstow winning three from four at the track and on ground conditions to suit, can make a bold bid.
Next up will be Gypsy George (2:05 Chepstow) who will enjoy underfoot conditions on offer and will be staying on stoutly when most have cried enough. The Tim Walford trained gelding is still pretty much unexposed having very few miles on the clocking running just 8 times in his lifetime, and with wins over extended trips at Kelso, Uttoxeter and Ayr he can be expected to be thereabouts in this tricky handicap off a mark of 135.
Pepite De Soleil was undoubtedly impressive when hacking up on British debut, but I’ll take her on with the hotly touted Alan King trained juvenile Walkon (2:40 Chepstow) who chased home the impressive Zaynar at Newbury when last seen. There was plenty to like about that ones attitude having to give weight away to Nicky Henderson’s main Triumph Hurdle hope, and the soft ground will play to this ones strengths.
Moving across to Kempton, and the newcomers will have to be something special to serve it up to both Starluck and Balzaccio, but word is Ramona Chase (1:05 Kempton) has schooled like a dream and with that in mind, also accounting for his solid flat form could well surprise the judge at a good value price.
Petit Robin (3:15 Kempton) NAP; is the next port of call, and the Nicky Henderson trained gelding can continue the upward curve after a blistering success last time in handicap company. That was off a mark of 132, of which arguably was thrown in – but he won with such ruthless efficiency against decent grade handicaps it makes you believe that despite being not best off at these weights, can find the necessary improvement.
On the level now, and Reg Hollinshead can continue his rich vein of form with Tillers Satisfied (12:40 Southwell) under the hands of capable apprentice Andrea Atzeni who has a 66.67% strike-rate for the trainer this season. Following on with that man Atzeni again in the next heat and La Capriosa (1:15 Southwell) ran well in a Nursery last time when second from a high draw and with Alan McCabe starting to hit form and the solid jockey booking would suggest the drop to selling company will work the oracle. The last can go to Transmission (3:30 Southwell) and Bryan Smart who can use the drop in distance from her latest run to her advantage.
The Resurgent Reg Hollinshead
Reg Hollinshead
Aged 84 his career as a successful trainer has spanned more than 60 years and during this time he has mentored numerous leading jockeys from both the flat and jumps including Kevin Darley, who was Champion Flat Jockey in 2000, Walter Swinburn, Leighton Aspell, Fergal Lynch, Willie Ryan and Paul Eddery.
Hollinshead has been quiet in regards to winners over the last five years, but showed signs of a return to better times in 2007, and has built on that now in 2008. Sending in regular winners, Hollinshead has posted his best strike-rate to date since before 2003, showing a winning strike-rate of 11.48%. Hollinshead has shown a profit of £521.30 (to £10 Stakes) since October this year for a winning strike-rate of 20% - that’s not including today’s winner Dancing Deano whom saluted at a price of 17/2 after being backed down from 16s.
In personal experience it’s always worth noting when Russell Kennemore rides for Mr Hollinshead, as being quite a tall lad he doesn’t get as many chances as he deserves, but is a lad Hollinshead regards very highly and makes best use of his remaining 3lb allowance. Despite the stats showing a loss of over £780 to £10 stakes, of late he’s been using Russell more sparingly and is worth judging based on recent times.
Andrea Atzeni is a jockey who has caught many an eye this summer, and the young Italian looks set to make himself a big name in the sport of Horse Racing, and he too has been noticed and utilised by Reg Hollinshead – and the pairing are worth backing blind when teaming up together. Showing a LSP (Level Stakes Profit) of £270 to £10 stakes, with a strike-rate of 66.67%. Another worth looking out for is a jockey I’m not to sure on, and is pretty much unknown to me but Mr Lee Newnes is a man who can get the job done, posting an unbeaten record (3/3) when riding for Reg Hollinshead, showing a LSP of £360.00 to £10 stakes, from just three rides. So is worth close consideration when booked to ride one of Mr Hollinshead’ horses.
Above is a list of jockeys whom over the last five years have shown a nice clear profit when riding for Mr Hollinshead, and are worth watching when booked to ride for him in future. His horses are usually that of lower grade animals, and thus you will be betting in poor class races with horses holding no real secrets from the handicapper, but whatever Reg Hollinshead is currently doing with his horses is paying massive dividends – and long may it continue!
Southwell (AW) – Trainers to follow
With the all-weather fast approaching, it pays to look into the trainers which are making a profit year on year the data below is specified on a minimum of 50 bets.
The reason why I’ve chosen Southwell is because I find it the most fair all-weather track out there, infact it’s the only track like it in the country and the form usually works out and there’s less bunched finishes and hard luck stories than at other courses such as Lingfield for example.
I bet at Southwell last year, and after working out all my bets I’d of made an insane profit over the winter had I just kept to that track, so this year I plan to do just that!
Looking at the table above, the stats are quite impressive, a nice tasty profit of nearly 3k over the space of five years. The stats below are now going on how much you’d make/lose on a daily/monthly/yearly scenario. The losses are highlighted in red, and profit in green. All stats recorded to £10 win stake only.
Most Consecutive Losers; 38
Most Consecutive Winners; 3
Biggest Loss (1 Day); -£90.00
Highest Win (1 Day) £484.20
Biggest Loss (1 Week); -£120.00
Highest Win (1 Week); £620.00
Biggest Loss (1 Month); -£297.10
Highest Win (1 Month); £630.90
Biggest Loss (1 Year); £325.60
Highest Win (1 Year); £690.00
Since the surface was relayed after the floods, the stats for the system would look like this (2008 only).
Bets: 132
Wins: 31
Profit (£10): £588.70
Strike-Rate: 23.48%
Backing the horses above in the trainers’ list each-way using the following criteria would produce a staggering profit of £2875.00!!
Price: Above 100/30
Runners: 5+
Qualifiers: 857
Placed: 283
Profit (£10): £2875.00
Strike Rate: 33.02%
If anyone wants any specific trainer data for Southwell, I’m going to be doing some further investigation into race types, prize money, and also stall bias. So if there’s anything in particular you want finding out, leave a message requesting what and I’ll see what I can club together.
Trainer Knowledge: Top 10 Nursery Trainers
Top 10 Nursery Trainers
It’s that time of year again when the two-year-olds start running against each other in Nursery Company. For those of you who don’t know what Nurseries are for two-year-old horses then it’s basically a handicap for the younger horses.
Some trainers do very well in this discipline year in year out, and with the backend of the flat season ahead of us, this guide could prove very useful to have to hand when looking to make a little on the gee gees.
Sir Mark Prescott does well with his Nursery runners, and is a potent force with every one of his runners – especially at Musselburgh, with 5 winning bets from 7, he shows a strike-rate of 71.43% at the northern track, and a profit of £150.05 to level £10 stakes.
So like your very best countdown program of Top 100 Chat-up lines, or TV Shows – I’ll start by introducing number 10 on the list.
10.
Alan King
Bets: 32
Wins: 5
Strike-Rate: 15.62%
Profit to £10 Stakes: £130.00
9.
David Elsworth
Bets: 34
Wins: 6
Strike-Rate: 17.65%
Profit to £10 Stakes: £396.20
8.
J Howard Johnson
Bets: 28
Wins: 5
Strike-Rate: 17.86%
Profit to £10 Stakes: £125.00
7.
Kevin Prendergast
Bets: 84
Wins: 15
Strike-Rate: 17.86%
Profit to £10 Stakes: £158.40
6.
Jamie Osborne
Bets: 164
Wins: 32
Strike-Rate: 19.51%
Profit to £10 Stakes: £575.90
5.
Luca Cumani
Bets: 40
Wins: 8
Strike-Rate: 20%
Profit to £10 Stakes: £116.00
4.
Sir Michael Stoute
Bets: 35
Wins: 8
Strike-Rate: 22.86%
Profit to £10 Stakes: £145.00
3.
David Wachman
Bets: 43
Wins: 11
Strike-Rate: 25.58%
Profit to £10 Stakes: £690.00
2.
Roger Charlton
Bets: 39
Wins: 10
Strike-Rate: 25.64%
Profit to £10 Stakes: £8.40
1.
Sir Mark Prescott
Bets: 80
Wins: 24
Strike-Rate: 30%
Profit to £10 Stakes: £181.10
So there you have it, the very best in profit making on two-year-old handicaps (Nurseries). Now I’ll put up a few extra stats for the top 5 trainers, for which course they’re best at.
ONE
Sir Mark Prescott
Track: Musselburgh
Bets: 7
Wins: 5
Strike-Rate: 71.43%
Profit to £10 Stakes: £150.05
TWO
Roger Charlton
Track: Bath
Bets: 2
Wins: 2
Strike-Rate: 100%
Profit to £10 Stakes: £95.00
THREE
David Wachman
Track: Curragh
Bets: 4
Wins: 4
Strike-Rate: 100%
Profit to £10 Stakes: £330.00
FOUR
Sir Michael Stoute
Track: Lingfield
Bets: 3
Wins: 2
Strike-Rate: 66.67%
Profit to £10 Stakes: £115.00
FIVE
Luca Cumani
Track: Wolverhampton
Bets: 3
Wins: 2
Strike-Rate: 66.67%
Profit to £10 Stakes: £160.00
Trainer Knowledge: Top 10 Trainers who beat the system
What is it about the same trainers who beat the handicapper year in year out? Do they have a canny knack of handicapping their horses to perfection year upon year, or does the handicapper give them a chance at certain stables as opposed to others?
I mean if you had a Nick Williams horse win a maiden on debut by three lengths, and a Sir Michael Stoute horse win the same race by the same distance – would they get handicapped the same? Or would the Sir Michael Stoute horse be handicapped on his trainers’ reputation and thus run the risk of being badly handicapped?
Some trainers consistently beat the handicapper each year despite the handicapper always trying new ways to get a handle on the horse. Sir Mark Prescott is a prime example of this and in many ways the master of beating the British Handicapping System, something which he has done successfully for decades.
The only problem is now is that once your typical Sir Mark Prescott horse has had it’s three runs over a trip short of it’s best as a two-year-old, when it returns in a Handicap as a three-year-old over a more suitable trip, the cat is usually already out of the bag. The new revolution of the betting exchange or Betfair as I’d prefer to call it – now gives a more realistic interpretation of a horses price, and with one so obviously well handicapped as a Prescott handicapper first time up, a lot of people will be queuing up to hit the ‘back’ button; so you need to start looking elsewhere for better prices on less exposed masters of this handicapping shrewdness.
Therefore the aim of this article is to pinpoint 9 other trainers who beat the Handicapping system on a regular basis and show a solid profit in the process, each trainer will be presented with a list of essential stats which will give you an idea as to how often they beat the system.
10.
David Elsworth
Bets: 855
Wins: 105
Strike Rate: 12.28%
Profit to £10 Stakes: £2,114.60
9.
Tom Tate
Bets: 286
Wins: 38
Strike Rate: 13.29%
Profit to £10 Stakes: £700.96
8.
David Wachman
Bets: 402
Wins: 57
Strike-Rate: 14.18%
Profit to £10 Stakes: £650.01
7.
Chris Wall
Bets: 725
Wins: 110
Strike-Rate: 15.17%
Profit to £10 Stakes: £1,277.90
6.
John Long
Bets: 106
Wins: 17
Strike-Rate: 16.04%
Profit to £10 Stakes: £1,410.08
Jane Chapple-Hyam; former wife of trainer Peter has had plenty of experience in horse racing. Working for sixteen years as Peter Chapple-Hyam’s assistant in both England and Hong Kong and in 2005 took a huge step into the training ranks herself. Now backed up by Jim & Fitri Hay her string only look like improving and she’s a woman who knows what she is doing.
5.
Jane Chapple-Hyam
Bets: 157
Wins: 27
Strike-Rate: 17.2%
Profit to £10 Stakes: £900.66
A chartered accountant and a competent racehorse trainer, Nick Williams may not have the horses as some of the more prominent stables in racing but he certainly knows a handicap snip when he sees one. After all he did get Bulwark to win the Chester Cup, that’s an achievement in it’s self and a cracking year so far in 2008, suggests he’s only going to get better.
4.
Nick Williams
Bets: 259
Wins: 51
Strike-Rate: 19.69%
Profit to £10 Stakes: £1,406.60
One of the latest new wave of talent to start up training, Tom Dascombe has made racing his life for the last 19 years, and stints as a stable lad, jockey, and now trainer – this lad has made rapid progress in his first season or two at the helm, and is a talent worth keeping on the right side of.
3.
Tom Dascombe
Bets: 156
Wins: 32
Strike-Rate: 20.51%
Profit to £10 Stakes: £675.20
Tim Vaughan a relatively new trainer on the racing scene, although being involved with horses all his life. Took out a permit to train horses in 2005, and saddled a winner with his first runner. Investments in his abilities over the last couple of years have seen this mans talent come to the fore and looks one to follow for a while yet.
2.
Tim Vaughan
Bets: 84
Wins: 19
Strike-Rate: 22.62%
Profit to £10 Stakes: £442.90
…and finally what list would be complete without the messiah himself, and straight in at number one goes Sir Mark Prescott.
1.
Sir Mark Prescott
Bets: 702
Wins: 214
Strike-Rate: 30.48%
Profit to £10 Stakes: £525.00
So there you have it, 10 trainers worth following in Handicap Company which are proven money makers. All stats date back to 2003, and thus separate the men from the boys, and in Jane Chapple-Hyam’s case, the women from the girls.
Trainer Breakdown: Chris Wall
In addition to my “The Lower Classes” article, I shall now be conducting a series of tests on various trainers over the next month and trying to look into what make them tick. I know the guys on here are big fans of Chris Wall mainly because one of our members is employed by the master of Induna Stables, so that’s my first port of call for this series.
Our first approach is; looking at what tracks Chris Wall favours against others and try and piece together a pattern to make some hard earned. From the table below, you can see that Chris Wall does well at Lingfield, Newbury, Wolverhampton, Yarmouth and Sandown although Doncaster can also be included.
As you can see Chris Wall makes a healthy profit at all of the meetings listed above, but Lingfield can be both all-weather and turf and thus needs further investigation. In the table below I’ve separated them into the turf course and all-weather and although there isn’t much of a difference it’s worth splitting up the sample.
A much better strike-rate and Profit on the Turf here at Lingfield, and if you’d narrowed it down further to backing Chris Wall horses on the Lingfield turf, with the going description as Good – you’d get the following set of results.
Following this over the last five years has proven profitable however qualifiers are few and far between which can be attributed to the general core of meetings at Lingfield now are run on there artificial all-weather surface. The stats below are linked to the above table in regards to the ground condition at Lingfield, and this is how you’d have done backing these year on year.
Another place to look for Chris Wall runners are in handicaps and the master of Induna Stables can be placed up there with the best at handicapping his horses to take advantage of their marks. I’m guessing the majority wouldn’t know but if you’d backed every Chris Wall; Handicap runner since 2003, you’d of made a cool £1,260.29 to £10 level stakes – with a strike rate of 15%.
Following Chris Wall handicappers in Class 4 Handicaps will have resulted in a profit of £830.68 to £10 level units, and a strike-rate of 18.62%. However backing his handicap entrants in Class 1 events will result in a £40 loss to £10 units, as all four entrants in this grade have all lost.
Okay so now we’ve looked at his favoured tracks, favourite type of races (handicaps) so now it’s time to take this investigation to the next port of call – Race Distances. Each trainer has the ability to train a certain type of horse; Richard Hannon is most potent with his Sprinters, but struggles to do anything with horses beyond a mile. Sir Michael Stoute does well with his classic types, mile and above but has trouble with his sprinters.
So if you’d backed every Chris Wall horse over a distance of 9F and above, you’d of lost £1,280.45 to £10 level units. With just a winning strike-rate of 10.63% - that’s quite a poor showing really for a trainer who does so well with his horses, which must suggest that his runners below 9F will show a significant profit – let’s see!
Now those figures are much better; backing a Chris Wall horse over 5F to 8.5F has produced a tasty profit of £1,153.58 to £10 level stakes. Narrowing this down to handicaps only further increases the profit and overall strike rate, these details are in the below table.
Another investigation I decided to delve into was following Chris Walls’ horses in Handicaps, over the trips between 5F and 8.5F, and then added in my initial investigation of the Prize Money (See my The Lower Classes article for more detail). This produced 367 bets, 62 winners and a profit of £1,550.11 to £10 stakes, the Prize Money use was that of £0-£8,000.
So now we’ve looked into the Newmarket handler a little more it’s clear to see that was can use some of these stats to our advantage. I’ve put together a bullet-point list of what should help us go a good way towards making some money following his horses.
- Back Chris Walls’ horses at Lingfield, Newbury, Wolverhampton, Yarmouth, Sandown and Doncaster.
- Especially when in Handicaps, as these show a significant profit to your original stake.
- Have more confidence in a Chris Wall runner when the distance is below 9F, his horses below this trip appear to run much better than over longer distances and make a tasty profit in the process.
The Lower Classes
Something which has always lurked in the back of my mind was looking at the unexpected angles within Horse Racing and hopefully turning them into hard cash – so after being bored for a few hours on the PC I decided to do some digging around and get the ball rolling on what I’m hoping will be some interesting and money-making stats.
I’ve started off by setting my parameters to races with prize money of £4,000 and below, this will locate races with the class bracket towards the bottom end of the spectrum. The un-genuine and the not very good can often be found down in these levels but some trainers do specifically well with these type of animals; a list of the better performing can be located in the table below.
So we have now established a list of 17 different trainers who all show a profit to level stakes in races with prize money of £4,000 or less. Taking the data from the table above it would appear that Michael Jarvis comes out top of the list in this type of grade and although he hasn’t’ showed as much profit as William Knight amongst others he’s most consistent.
Now it’s time to analyze a select few whom I’ve picked out to try and narrow down the search to specific tracks. For this I’ve used the same criteria above, but have managed to add in the course as well. I’ve started this search with Michael Jarvis as he sits top of the pile above I thought it was only fair, and it would appear he does best at Nottingham and Lingfield in these types of races.
Showing a solid strike-rate of 34% at Nottingham a track where Michael Jarvis does well on the whole is decent, although by the look of things there aren’t many decent prices lying around with just a profit of £60.06 to £10 level stakes. Lingfield however is a different kettle of fish, a strike-rate of nearly 30% but his profit is three times as much and weighs in on £380.91 to £10 units.
I then decided to give William Haggas a try after such an improved season for his yard this year and he continues to fire the winners in. He appears to do better by far in this grade at Southwell and shows a near 40% strike rate in these moderate affairs. If you’d backed all his horses in races of our criteria at Southwell to £10 you’d of made a tasty £180.35 profit. He’s also doing well at both Kempton and Yarmouth and can be backed at all three tracks to the tune of a healthy profit.
Tom Dascombe is next on the list and a trainer who has made rapid headway through the training ranks after firing in Classic Blade in the July Stakes at Newmarket, along with Firth Of Fifth in the Superlative Stakes. He’s done remarkably well since taking up his license and looks sure to progress into bigger and better things in the future. That doesn’t mean however he won’t farm these smaller races. You can already see he’s a potent force around Wolverhampton and Lingfield in races worth £4,000 or less, and shows a solid profit on each track. His horses should be followed at these two tracks as they won’t be far away judging by the above, especially at Wolverhampton.
Next I thought I’d include a local trainer in this piece and who better than Nick Williams who has really impressed this year, landing the Chester Cup with the evergreen Bulwark is an achievement worthy of note. Showing a healthy profit at all three jumping tracks above, a solid strike-rate of 35% at Worcester suggests his horses wont be far from winning went campaigned here in the lower grades.
Finally there is William Knight who has been doing well with his handicappers this year, and his flag bearer King Of Dixie has made the step up to pattern class, however Knight is doing considerably well in the lower grades at Lingfield, so much so it’s worthy of mention. A strike rate of just 11% in our criteria of races but when he runs his horses in this type of race round Lingfield his strike-rate almost doubles and posts a lethal profit of £1,315.00 to £10 stakes in the process. His horses in this grade are worth keeping in your pocket as they can make you some solid cash.
Okay now that’s your lot – I’ve spent the past hour or so putting together these stats and I think we can all see from the above stats that it is possible to make some cash in the lower grades, just keep in mind the table of trainers above when encountering a race worth £4,000 or less in prize money – that should put you onto plenty of winning bets.
Take note of William Knight with his runners at Lingfield, Tom Dascombe at Wolverhampton and William Haggas at Southwell. Although backing these trainers’ horses blind in the grade of race should ensure you keep the wolf from the door.
Take it easy,
The Duke
Henrythenavigator - Poor Guineas Winner?
May 3, 2008 by The Duke
Filed under Featured, Speed Ratings
Now I know I’m going to get laughed at for suggesting such a thing, but I’m not sure how good this years renewal has been.
Henrythenavigator is still pretty much unexposed as horses can be, and I’m a little worried that the horse is on the small side and most probably alot easier to get fit than the likes of New Approach. The latter mentioned had to cut his own pace and unfortunatley couldn’t regain his lead in time when passed just before the line by Henrythenavigator, although Jim Bolger’s colt was battling back.
Compared to the fast time of Cockney Rebel last year, Geoff Huffer’s colt was awared a Topspeed rating of 125, whereas Henrythenavigator has been awared 115, which ranks him inferior to last years winner.
My Ratings
102.29 Entrepreneur
101.47 Haafhd
100.82 Cockney Rebel
100.35 King Of Kings
99.69 King’s Best
99.35 Golan
98.44 George Washington
97.35 Refuse To Bend
97.20 Henrythenavigator
96.05 Rock Of Gibraltar
95.76 Footstepsinthesand
93.11 Island Sands
George Washington can be awarded a few extra points for the consumate ease of success.
The defection of seemingly first string Jupiter Pluvius would suggest that, that colt is probably showing more at home than Henrythenavigator however the latter mentioned was more ready for todays task, whereas the former is being saved for a summer/autumn campaign.
I’m a little tired to go into the exact specifics right now, but I’d be looking to oppose Henrythenavigator next time out at a likely short price, as I believe he’s got lucky today.
Thoughts?
