Okay now I’ve been sceptical about this horses chances of staying the Guineas trip ever since he returned as a three-year-old, however what I saw from Paco Boy at Newbury this weekend has put serious doubts in my mind.

Lets start with looking at Paco Boy’s pedigree, by Desert Style out of Tapenzee by Sandhurst Prince. All his siblings have won over a mile, and Fuell Cell over ten furlongs.

Paco Boy has a Dosage Index of 2.00 and a CoD of 0.42

Compare that to….

Cockney Rebel DI 1.91 CoD 0.69
George Washington DI 1.67 CoD 0.36
Footstepsinthesand DI 1.77 CoD 0.61
Haahfd DI 2.33 CoD 0.75
Refuse To Bend DI 1.05 CoD 0.25

Now the rating clocked by Paco Boy in the Greenham is pound for pound better than what Twice Over clocked at Newmarket earlier in the week.

Weighted to 9st
Paco Boy 97.92
Twice Over 97.07
Ravens Pass 96.97

Now we have a look at a couple of examples of Richard Hannon bringing horses through the Greenham route to the Guineas.

Redback - Won Greenham before 3rd to Rock Of Gibraltar at 25/1
Major Cadeaux - Won Greenham before 6th (Beaten 3L) behind Cockney Rebel at 10/1.

Now horses have a bad record in the Guineas who run in the Greenham, the closest was probably Enrique in 1999 for the last 10 years. However that was a poor renewal.

Last Ten Top Speed Ratings
Paco Boy 110
Enrique 110
Victory Note 107
Redback 96
Indesatchel 96
Salford City 93
Barathea Guest 92
Major Cadeaux 89
Muqbil 88
Red Clubs 82

However I think Paco Boy is a little better than your average Greenham winner, and the way he quickened up suggests he’ll stay the extra furlong at Newmarket - although I dont think getting a mile at Newmarket is as hard as people make out.

YouTube - Paco Boy wins the Greenham Stakes Newbury 2008

I just think when you’ve got Twice Over at 6/1 and Raven’s Pass at 5/1 best priced.

Then why is Paco Boy available at 119 on Betfair?

Paco Boy can also be backed each-way with plenty of firms at 25/1, I think people are missing the point here that Paco Boy will stay the Guineas trip.

Anyone got any thoughts?