Paco Boy serious shout for Guineas Glory

Okay now I’ve been sceptical about this horses chances of staying the Guineas trip ever since he returned as a three-year-old, however what I saw from Paco Boy at Newbury this weekend has put serious doubts in my mind.

Lets start with looking at Paco Boy’s pedigree, by Desert Style out of Tapenzee by Sandhurst Prince. All his siblings have won over a mile, and Fuell Cell over ten furlongs.

Paco Boy has a Dosage Index of 2.00 and a CoD of 0.42

Compare that to….

Cockney Rebel DI 1.91 CoD 0.69
George Washington DI 1.67 CoD 0.36
Footstepsinthesand DI 1.77 CoD 0.61
Haahfd DI 2.33 CoD 0.75
Refuse To Bend DI 1.05 CoD 0.25

Now the rating clocked by Paco Boy in the Greenham is pound for pound better than what Twice Over clocked at Newmarket earlier in the week.

Weighted to 9st
Paco Boy 97.92
Twice Over 97.07
Ravens Pass 96.97

Now we have a look at a couple of examples of Richard Hannon bringing horses through the Greenham route to the Guineas.

Redback - Won Greenham before 3rd to Rock Of Gibraltar at 25/1
Major Cadeaux - Won Greenham before 6th (Beaten 3L) behind Cockney Rebel at 10/1.

Now horses have a bad record in the Guineas who run in the Greenham, the closest was probably Enrique in 1999 for the last 10 years. However that was a poor renewal.

Last Ten Top Speed Ratings
Paco Boy 110
Enrique 110
Victory Note 107
Redback 96
Indesatchel 96
Salford City 93
Barathea Guest 92
Major Cadeaux 89
Muqbil 88
Red Clubs 82

However I think Paco Boy is a little better than your average Greenham winner, and the way he quickened up suggests he’ll stay the extra furlong at Newmarket - although I dont think getting a mile at Newmarket is as hard as people make out.

YouTube - Paco Boy wins the Greenham Stakes Newbury 2008

I just think when you’ve got Twice Over at 6/1 and Raven’s Pass at 5/1 best priced.

Then why is Paco Boy available at 119 on Betfair?

Paco Boy can also be backed each-way with plenty of firms at 25/1, I think people are missing the point here that Paco Boy will stay the Guineas trip.

Anyone got any thoughts?

Assertive can win Group Race

Done my times for the Abernant Stakes and it would appear that Assertive has run right up to the rating he posted in this race last year behind Asset. Zidane was flashing home late in the day to nail Assertive but Richard Hannon’s colt was fighting back gamely again at the line once headed, and I think he’d of got back up had he got time to respond.

When running in this event last year, Assertive clocked 99.93 to Group 1 conditions, and yesterday he clocked 99.95 so he’s actually basically run smack bang to form which is a nice form boost for Zidane who’s finally made the step up from a handicapper to Group 1 animal. I’m inclined to let Zidane go though, as his style of racing suggests he’ll more often than not encounter trouble in running, and will always be a few points shorter than his true value due to the jockey booking and stable.

Back to Assertive who holds an entry in the Duke Of York (Group 2) at York on May 14^th, a race which he really ran well in last year behind Amadeus Wolf in a race which clocked a very quick Group 1 time. He suffered some interference in running and could possibly be counted a little unlucky to be beaten into fifth, but he wasn’t beaten very far and because of his flops in other Group races throughout the year will probably be a decent price.

Another thing I’ve noticed about Assertive is that he runs better in the Spring, so next time could be the time to catch him ripe. We’re bound to get some classy sorts in the race though and my view will probably change come race-time, but he sets a benchmark.

Dark Missile also ran well on her return but was held at the line, and the blistering form of Andrew Balding probably enhanced her placings. I’d be weary about backing her outside of Filly/Mare Company.

Adjusted to 9st 4lb
Assertive 100.41 [2nd]
Zidane 100.10 [1st]
Sonny Red 99.85 [4th]
Dark Missile 98.36 [3rd]
War Artist 98.05 [6th]
Advanced 97.60 [5th]

Reference my Article on this race last year: here